I am still not totally convinced that extreme heat will return late this weekend into next week. You may have heard from several radio and TV outlets that triple digit heat may make a return. Model predictions show a massive heat ridge somewhere over the eastern United States starting this weekend and then heading into next week. I am in no way saying that this will definitely not happen, but the exact location of this ridge and exactly where the surface high pressure ends up sitting will make all the difference. I posted about this last week how model guidance for temperature forecast have been higher than what is actually occurring. Today was no different with RDU reaching 92 and some guidance yesterday showing highs in the mid to upper 90s. The same holds true for Wednesday through Friday. I feel most guidance is slightly to warm.
Here is a look at extended range temperature statistical guidance from the GFS(global forecast system model) for RDU.
WED: 95
THURS: 94
FRI: 98
SAT: 97
SUN: 99
MON: 102
TUES: 100
As you can see, the heat is predicting to get extreme by next week. Will this happen? Its possible given the pattern that appears to be coming, but this model has also been several degrees above the actual observed readings.
For Wednesday, with higher moisture in the air I would expect that there would be a good amount of cumulus clouds with some of them becoming storms. This should help to keep temperatures from getting higher than 93. Thursday will be very similar with perhaps more showers and storms. Then from there, it all depends on how the ridge at the surface and aloft align themselves into the weekend. Stay tuned.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Thursday, July 24, 2008
All Aboard The NC Rollercoaster Ride
Before I get into today's post, I want to post a satellite image of Hurricane Dolly making landfall on the south eastern coast of Texas yesterday. Sorry I did not post yesterday but it was my bday and there was enough severe going on in NC that I did not have a chance to post...
She made landfall packing maximum sustained winds close to 100 mph, a solid category 2 hurricane.
Just too recap, we had highs of 97 on both Monday and Tuesday with humid conditions. Due to storms and more clouds we only reached 90 on Wednesday but still with high humidity. Today we much cooler and more pleasant conditions with a high only 87 and we had dew points crash into the lower 50's earlier today. The days before the dew points were in the lower 70s. That is what makes the air feel more soupy and we basically cut the amount of water in the air in half today. As I write this, it is currently 73 degrees in my backyard under clear skies. We have a very real chance of seeing lows Friday morning in the upper 50s, a few degrees above the record 56 for a low set back in 1947. Friday will again be pleasant with a few more degrees added on to the high. Expect a high around 89 and a low of 59. This weekend the heat and humidity will make a return but will there be storms?
She made landfall packing maximum sustained winds close to 100 mph, a solid category 2 hurricane.
Just too recap, we had highs of 97 on both Monday and Tuesday with humid conditions. Due to storms and more clouds we only reached 90 on Wednesday but still with high humidity. Today we much cooler and more pleasant conditions with a high only 87 and we had dew points crash into the lower 50's earlier today. The days before the dew points were in the lower 70s. That is what makes the air feel more soupy and we basically cut the amount of water in the air in half today. As I write this, it is currently 73 degrees in my backyard under clear skies. We have a very real chance of seeing lows Friday morning in the upper 50s, a few degrees above the record 56 for a low set back in 1947. Friday will again be pleasant with a few more degrees added on to the high. Expect a high around 89 and a low of 59. This weekend the heat and humidity will make a return but will there be storms?
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
So How Hot Today?; Dolly Update; Severe Weather..
Lots to discuss tonight..and I am gonna try to make this as brief as possible.
First, here are my forecasted Highs for today for select cities with the actual next to them
Raleigh-Durham : 98; actual 97
Fayetteville: 99; actual 98
Greensboro: 96; actual 95
Winston-Sale: 96; actual 95
Charlotte: 98; actual 97
So as you can see, I was one degree too high at each city. If you remember what I posted yesterday about increased moisture, more cloud cover, and potential for storms.. well this seemed to hold the mercury just short of my predicted highs everywhere. There was not one 100 degree reading anywhere officially across NC today. Whats incredible is that we are in the middle of summer with stronger sun, and we couldnt top the heat wave of early June.
As far as Dolly goes, She became a hurricane this evening at 5pm and now is packing 80 mph winds as of 11pm. She is expected to make landfall just south of the US border tomorrow morning. Here is a nice Infrared Satellite capture of the 'Cane...
Now.. of more interest closer to home was the amount of severe weather across the state today. The atmosphere was quite unstable today and sure enough there was low-level triggers all over the place in the form of a surface trough, old outflow boundaries from storm complexes over the mid-west yesterday and more recent outflow from new storms. Outflow boundaries are like mini cold fronts in that they form from rain cooled thunderstorm air. The atmosphere largely supported what is known as pulse severe storms where the storms rapidly develop, become severe with hail, and damaging winds, and then die off. This occurred all over the place ( But not in Cary.. we missed.. hopefully we can get some storms on my BDAY tomorrow) including just NW of Charlotte where one of my friends witnessed a pulse severe storm. Stanton Lanham witnessed strong winds probably close to 60mph that snapped trees near a golf course he was at, then got penny sized hail with lots of lightning and heavy rain, and then more strong winds. When he got home to his house 2 miles from the course, he saw trees down everywhere. One of these trees fell on his friends roof. In Raleigh, we largely missed severe weather although at I-540 and US-64 Bypass there was a report of penny sized hail and also at RDU there was a 47 mph wind gust reported (Not severe.. needs to be 58 mph or greater) with .48 inches of rainfall. RDU got a pulse storm as well that formed and dissipated about 15 minutes later.
As for Wednesday, more storms are a definte possibility. Severe weather is still up in the air but with the amplyfication of an upper lever trough and approach of a cold front, I think more folks will at least see thunderstorms. These storms should begin in the afternoon and last through the evening.
First, here are my forecasted Highs for today for select cities with the actual next to them
Raleigh-Durham : 98; actual 97
Fayetteville: 99; actual 98
Greensboro: 96; actual 95
Winston-Sale: 96; actual 95
Charlotte: 98; actual 97
So as you can see, I was one degree too high at each city. If you remember what I posted yesterday about increased moisture, more cloud cover, and potential for storms.. well this seemed to hold the mercury just short of my predicted highs everywhere. There was not one 100 degree reading anywhere officially across NC today. Whats incredible is that we are in the middle of summer with stronger sun, and we couldnt top the heat wave of early June.
As far as Dolly goes, She became a hurricane this evening at 5pm and now is packing 80 mph winds as of 11pm. She is expected to make landfall just south of the US border tomorrow morning. Here is a nice Infrared Satellite capture of the 'Cane...
Now.. of more interest closer to home was the amount of severe weather across the state today. The atmosphere was quite unstable today and sure enough there was low-level triggers all over the place in the form of a surface trough, old outflow boundaries from storm complexes over the mid-west yesterday and more recent outflow from new storms. Outflow boundaries are like mini cold fronts in that they form from rain cooled thunderstorm air. The atmosphere largely supported what is known as pulse severe storms where the storms rapidly develop, become severe with hail, and damaging winds, and then die off. This occurred all over the place ( But not in Cary.. we missed.. hopefully we can get some storms on my BDAY tomorrow) including just NW of Charlotte where one of my friends witnessed a pulse severe storm. Stanton Lanham witnessed strong winds probably close to 60mph that snapped trees near a golf course he was at, then got penny sized hail with lots of lightning and heavy rain, and then more strong winds. When he got home to his house 2 miles from the course, he saw trees down everywhere. One of these trees fell on his friends roof. In Raleigh, we largely missed severe weather although at I-540 and US-64 Bypass there was a report of penny sized hail and also at RDU there was a 47 mph wind gust reported (Not severe.. needs to be 58 mph or greater) with .48 inches of rainfall. RDU got a pulse storm as well that formed and dissipated about 15 minutes later.
As for Wednesday, more storms are a definte possibility. Severe weather is still up in the air but with the amplyfication of an upper lever trough and approach of a cold front, I think more folks will at least see thunderstorms. These storms should begin in the afternoon and last through the evening.
Monday, July 21, 2008
HOT For One More Day; More on Dolly
Here are the High Temperatures around central NC for Monday July 21, 2008.
CHARLOTTE : 96
FAYETTEVILLE : 97
GREENSBORO : 97
WINSTON-SALEM : INT 97
LUMBERTON : 97
RALEIGH-DURHAM : 97
ROCKY MT-WILSON : 95
ROANOKE RAPIDS : 95
Definately one of the hottest day of actual summer, but not the hottest day during the June, July, August period as one should remember the early season 100+ spell we had in early June. Not so much at Greensboro and Winston-Salem as they have not seen as much rain as we have here in the Raleigh area, but recent rainfall and much wetter grounds than what we have seen here in a very long time may have played a role in stopping the temperatures short of 100 today. The suns energy went in to evaporating this moisture and helped hold temperatures down slightly from what was being forecast by many TV stations, agencies, and computer models. They were all slightly too warm, but computer models were several degrees too warm.
Here are some forecasted highs for RDU for Tuesday from local TV, The Weather Channel, and the National Weather Service as well as from Computer Model Guidance.
WRAL (CBS): 100
WNCN (NBC): 99
WTVD: (ABC): 99
TWC: (Weather Channel): 99
AccuWeather: 100
NWS (National Weather Service): 99
GFS( Global Forecast Model): 101
Pretty close forecasts by all above with a few at 100 and of course a computer model being the warmest of them all. My hunch is that we will come short of hitting 100 once again on Tuesday for very similar reasons as today except there will slightly increased cloud cover. Across the western parts of the Piedmont of Winston-Salem and Greensboro, there is a chance of storms that could hold temps down also. Storms wont be possible to after max heating across our area here in Raleigh. I do not expect to see the humidity drop at all tomorrow which is being predicted by the GFS so it will stay very very humid making heat indices above close to 105 at times. I would not be surpised if eastern NC is put in an Heat Advisory for this reason by the NWS in the morning. I am going with these predictions for the following select cities
Raleigh-Durham : 98 (yes I gonna be lower than everyone and am willing to be wrong )
Fayetteville: 99
Greensboro: 96
Winston-Sale: 96
Charlotte: 98
I will post the actual highs tomorrow evening to see how accurate I am.
Real Quick on Dolly. She is slowly intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico and is currently packing winds at 50 mph. She is predicted to become a hurricane tomorrow and make landfall somewhere near the US/Mexico border near Texas. More tomorrow as well.
CHARLOTTE : 96
FAYETTEVILLE : 97
GREENSBORO : 97
WINSTON-SALEM : INT 97
LUMBERTON : 97
RALEIGH-DURHAM : 97
ROCKY MT-WILSON : 95
ROANOKE RAPIDS : 95
Definately one of the hottest day of actual summer, but not the hottest day during the June, July, August period as one should remember the early season 100+ spell we had in early June. Not so much at Greensboro and Winston-Salem as they have not seen as much rain as we have here in the Raleigh area, but recent rainfall and much wetter grounds than what we have seen here in a very long time may have played a role in stopping the temperatures short of 100 today. The suns energy went in to evaporating this moisture and helped hold temperatures down slightly from what was being forecast by many TV stations, agencies, and computer models. They were all slightly too warm, but computer models were several degrees too warm.
Here are some forecasted highs for RDU for Tuesday from local TV, The Weather Channel, and the National Weather Service as well as from Computer Model Guidance.
WRAL (CBS): 100
WNCN (NBC): 99
WTVD: (ABC): 99
TWC: (Weather Channel): 99
AccuWeather: 100
NWS (National Weather Service): 99
GFS( Global Forecast Model): 101
Pretty close forecasts by all above with a few at 100 and of course a computer model being the warmest of them all. My hunch is that we will come short of hitting 100 once again on Tuesday for very similar reasons as today except there will slightly increased cloud cover. Across the western parts of the Piedmont of Winston-Salem and Greensboro, there is a chance of storms that could hold temps down also. Storms wont be possible to after max heating across our area here in Raleigh. I do not expect to see the humidity drop at all tomorrow which is being predicted by the GFS so it will stay very very humid making heat indices above close to 105 at times. I would not be surpised if eastern NC is put in an Heat Advisory for this reason by the NWS in the morning. I am going with these predictions for the following select cities
Raleigh-Durham : 98 (yes I gonna be lower than everyone and am willing to be wrong )
Fayetteville: 99
Greensboro: 96
Winston-Sale: 96
Charlotte: 98
I will post the actual highs tomorrow evening to see how accurate I am.
Real Quick on Dolly. She is slowly intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico and is currently packing winds at 50 mph. She is predicted to become a hurricane tomorrow and make landfall somewhere near the US/Mexico border near Texas. More tomorrow as well.
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Cristobal and Dolly. Mini heat wave upon us.
Tropical Storm Cristobal became official Saturday afternoon and has not been very impressive at all off the coast of NC. He will be moving off to the NE tomorrow and Tuesday, but will leave behind a west northwest flow that will usher in a dry atmosphere and a mini heat wave.
Tropical Storm Dolly became official this afternoon and is churning in the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea just west of Jamaica and is threatening the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico where Cozumel and Cancun are located. The official 5pm Advisory on Dolly has her at .. I have posted the 5 day track positions as well as a Satellite image of Dolly. Notice the wide expanse of cloud cover with Dolly, but the actual center of circulation is located towards the southwest part of the cloud shield. Also notice the 5-day track forecast has Dolly re-emerging over open waters in the Gulf of Mexico and strengthening to a category 1 hurricane.. Conditions appear favorable for strengthening as long as Dolly can survive the trip over land. If Dolly glances the Yucatan, she will have a much better chance of getting stronger as conditions are very favorable for strengthening in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. One thing that is noted by the National Hurricane Center is that final landfall is not certain so the point near the US/Mexico border could change in the next few days.
Now onto the mini heat wave.. Due to northwest flow around the departing Cristobal and sinking air that accompanies the passage of a tropical cyclone, it will be very hot Monday and Tuesday. Northwest flow has a downslope component which in turn drys out the air and compresses it which will warm the air also. We should see highs on Monday 96-98 and Tuesday 95-97. I lowered the range on Tuesday due to the potential for more cloud cover in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday. One thing that I think will save us from triple digit heat in the Triangle is the fact the ground is wetter since we had rain this weekend and have been above normal for the last 2 months. This should help to hold temperatures just under 100 while when the ground is drier it is easier to heat up quicker due to less evaporation. Some hot spots in central NC could still see a 100 degree reading though but I think Raleigh should just miss.
Tropical Storm Dolly became official this afternoon and is churning in the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea just west of Jamaica and is threatening the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico where Cozumel and Cancun are located. The official 5pm Advisory on Dolly has her at .. I have posted the 5 day track positions as well as a Satellite image of Dolly. Notice the wide expanse of cloud cover with Dolly, but the actual center of circulation is located towards the southwest part of the cloud shield. Also notice the 5-day track forecast has Dolly re-emerging over open waters in the Gulf of Mexico and strengthening to a category 1 hurricane.. Conditions appear favorable for strengthening as long as Dolly can survive the trip over land. If Dolly glances the Yucatan, she will have a much better chance of getting stronger as conditions are very favorable for strengthening in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. One thing that is noted by the National Hurricane Center is that final landfall is not certain so the point near the US/Mexico border could change in the next few days.
Now onto the mini heat wave.. Due to northwest flow around the departing Cristobal and sinking air that accompanies the passage of a tropical cyclone, it will be very hot Monday and Tuesday. Northwest flow has a downslope component which in turn drys out the air and compresses it which will warm the air also. We should see highs on Monday 96-98 and Tuesday 95-97. I lowered the range on Tuesday due to the potential for more cloud cover in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday. One thing that I think will save us from triple digit heat in the Triangle is the fact the ground is wetter since we had rain this weekend and have been above normal for the last 2 months. This should help to hold temperatures just under 100 while when the ground is drier it is easier to heat up quicker due to less evaporation. Some hot spots in central NC could still see a 100 degree reading though but I think Raleigh should just miss.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Disturbed Weather Off The Coast Of Florida/Georgia
I have not posted since Sunday since I have been extremely busy and had to buy a new laptop battery and charger. Most importantly, nothing has changed since Sunday. There still remains a great deal of uncertainty in what will play out this weekend. There is a well defined circulation just off the coast of Georgia and Florida. It is over the gulf stream so it need to be watched closely as it appears possible that it could become a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm by this weekend. Regardless, the track of this circulation will be key to sensible weather in central NC this weekend.
If the circulation tracks up the coast then we may see a scattered shower or thunderstorm here but will mainly stay hot. If the circulation tracks more inland, then we stand a good chance of getting wet this weekend. Of course this would be a welcome scenario but right now model forecasts do not predict the circulation to come inland, rather move along the coast taking most of its precipitation and keeping it along and east of I-95. A stronger storm will of course change these scenarios but right now it does not appear that it will get too strong. In sum, we are a day away from the weekend and there are still major questions that need to be answered regarding sensible weather this weekend. In looking at a radar loop of the circulation, it looks to me that it actually is moving westward towards the coast instead on a more north track. Interesting to see if this continues or not.
If the circulation tracks up the coast then we may see a scattered shower or thunderstorm here but will mainly stay hot. If the circulation tracks more inland, then we stand a good chance of getting wet this weekend. Of course this would be a welcome scenario but right now model forecasts do not predict the circulation to come inland, rather move along the coast taking most of its precipitation and keeping it along and east of I-95. A stronger storm will of course change these scenarios but right now it does not appear that it will get too strong. In sum, we are a day away from the weekend and there are still major questions that need to be answered regarding sensible weather this weekend. In looking at a radar loop of the circulation, it looks to me that it actually is moving westward towards the coast instead on a more north track. Interesting to see if this continues or not.
Sunday, July 13, 2008
So What To Expect...
Easier said then done! Thats correct. .. Currently, a line of showers and thunderstorms stretching from east of Charlotte northeast to Greensboro is slowly moving east. I would expect to see this line to slowly make its way eastward into our area sometime later tonight, but it may not be as organized as it looks now. The cold front is currently west of the Appalachians and is expected to move into the state later tonight and into Monday bringing with it a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms.
For Tuesday, the front should be just off the coast of NC with slightly drier air behind it making it more bearable outside with temperatures in the middle and upper 80s. There should be a mix of sun and clouds.
The rest of the week: Much uncertainty exists as computer model guidance is very inconsistent in its many solutions, one of which may bring back a good a chance of showers/storms the end of the week and the other which stays dry with temperatures near 90. Gonna be interesting to see what plays out.
For Tuesday, the front should be just off the coast of NC with slightly drier air behind it making it more bearable outside with temperatures in the middle and upper 80s. There should be a mix of sun and clouds.
The rest of the week: Much uncertainty exists as computer model guidance is very inconsistent in its many solutions, one of which may bring back a good a chance of showers/storms the end of the week and the other which stays dry with temperatures near 90. Gonna be interesting to see what plays out.
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