Exceptional Day Ahead; A First Look at July 4

A cold front is currently sweeping through the area. No its not going to get cold, but we will not be dealing the the 90s tomorrow...possibly not even Wednesday. Our normal maximum temperature for July 1 is 88 and our normal minimum temperature is 67. With such a deep upper level trough overhead tomorrow as well as much cooler air I expect to see Highs top out at 84-86. You will wake up in the morning with temperatures around 60.. close to 7 degrees below where we should be. On Wednesday I do expect it be slightly warmer but I do not think it will be much above 88 or 89. Wednesday morning may even be cooler then Tuesday morning with temperatures in the upper 50s. It will also be comfortable outside with dewpoints in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Looking ahead to Friday, July 4..

I am sure many of you are wondering what the weather will be for your outdoor plans on July 4. Since some people who read this are not necessarily located in the Raleigh area I will outline my thoughts as things stand from west to east across NC. Temperatures will be warming back up into the lower 90s on Thursday, July 3 and I think this will continue through July 4. The biggest concern I have is how quickly moisture returns. What is prognosticated to happen is a surface high pressure will move offshore and begin to feed low level moisture into the state from the Atlantic and Gulf. A frontal boundary will also be approaching the state from the NW associated with another upper level trough. Since high pressure will be located offshore I do not think the front will just race through the state..instead slowing down as it approaches. This should lead to some fair weather cumulus clouds all across the state but right now any development of thunderstorms appears isolated at best. With a slow front eventually stalling somewhere either in VA or NC the stage will then be set for more showers and storms over the weekend. Temperatures will range from the upper 80s across the mountains and foothills to lower 90s across the central and eastern part of the state. Sunshine should be abundant with just the typical summertime cumulus clouds. One or two may form into a storm late in the day, but it will be isolated at best.

Weather prediction is not 100% accurate especially four days out so keep it here for more updates on July 4th weather. One thing I am pretty sure about not happening is a wash out. I find the chances of this almost zero!

Nice Storms This Evening!

It took most of the afternoon but finally what had been predicted as being a day when lots of folks in central NC would get rain and storms occurred. If you were out and about after 6pm you might have noticed some cloudiness beginning to develop. These clouds had great depth in the vertical to them which means they are trying to develop into storms. Wake Forest was first in on the action with a severe storm that brought down a few trees including one on a powerline. Then with the approach of more organized storms from the NW, very heavy rain, lightning and wind occurred all across Wake, Chatham, Orange, Franklin and points north and west. Penny size hail was reported by trained storm spotters at US64 and Jordan Lake as well as at Miami Blvd in Durham. Areas further south and west have not seen much if at all as of this post. Places to our east have seen some activity but that also appears to be not as widespread.

Looking at Doppler Radar estimates of rainfall there is a good area of widespread .50-1.50 inch rainfall amounts with some even close to 2 inches. RDU has seen .64 inches to this point. Currently there is still showers and storms going on back to our NW but these appear to stay north of the area, but there is an upper atmospheric impulse approaching so there could still be some redevelopment even at this late hour. As far as tomorrow, there remains questions on how much moisture will remain for storms when a strong cold front will rush through the area. Much cooler and less humid weather is on tap for Tuesday.

Drought Worsening

First, lets recap the last two days. I forecast a high of 95 on Wednesday and a high of 98 on Thursday. I was one off both days as the actual high on Wednesday was 96 and the actual high on Thursday was 97. I feel that Friday should be very similar to the past two days with the exception of slightly higher humidity especially in the evening. There is just a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon and early evening. There is a slightly better chance on Saturday and a decent chance on Sunday. Saturday looks like some will see a storm and others will remain hot and dry as lift is hard to come by other than daytime heating and higher dewpoints. Sunday, the latest upper ridge that has been affecting us will be well offshore and the approach of a deep upper level low over the Great Lakes should provide for much better coverage of showers and storms. Still though not everyone will get wet and thunderstorms have high run-off so it is not always beneficial. What we really need is a decaying tropical cyclone to be stationary over the southeast states pumping in copius amounts of moisture for widespread rains for several days. The latest drought monitor shows the whole state once again in a drought with Western NC in horrible shape. Eastern NC has been getting worse also as these very hot and dry days do take its toll on us. Folks, weeks of rain are needed to end this drought and I am really worried that we may be in worse shape come end of summer if we do not get something to ease the pain. We have not gotten through the peak of summer heat yet and already we are in worse shape now then we were at this time last year. Just because you saw inches of rain last weekend does not mean the rest of the state did. Yes I did rant here a little bit so I will post the current drought monitor map. Lets hope we can see more coverage of showers/storms the next 3 days then is currently being advertised!

HEAT Returning..

The next few days look to be really hot around these parts once again. Middle 90s should be the rule Wednesday and upper 90s Thursday. I am going to go with a high of 95 and a high of 98 on Thursday. Hopefully with the return of moisture on Friday and this weekend we will have more clouds keeping temperatures closer to 90. Believe it or not our climatological normal for this time of year is 87 so days in the upper 80s to 90 are not that extreme. Its the next couple days that should be hot but it does look like the dew points will be low making it feel a bit more bearable. Take it easy out there the next few days and I will be back with an update as we head closer to the weekend to take a look at why unsettled weather may return!

Evening Storm / Sunset Pictures/ Beach Storms

The last active weather day in the current series appears to be over. Instability for thunderstorms has waned and the threat for storms has greatly diminished but is not zero as the cold front still has not passed through. Too bad theres no cold air behind it, just much drier. I ( including those living in Morrisville, Cary, Apex, Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill) got very lucky tonight as a thunderstorm passed over dumping heavy rain. Of note is the two fine lines that collided near or over Jordan Lake/Western Wake County which appeared to be the colprit for developing new cells ahead of the storms that began to dissipate over Durham. These fine lines are also known as outflow boundaries from dissipated storms ( Cool moist air that rushes out ahead of the storms. When they collided the air seemed to be forced upward causing new storms to develop. Since the surface air was not as moist as past days, the cool moist air from the outflow may have helped the storms go. I was going to show an animation but I cannot seem to upload it at this time.

I am not gonna take up space letting you know how much rain fell but the range was from only .01 at RDU, .18 at NCSU, to anywhere from .25 to .75 in Morrisville, Apex, and Cary. After the storms passed through, the sunsetting was adding some nice color to the ice in the leftover cirrus clouds.




To end this post, a friend of mine sent me two pictures of storms at Emerald Isle, NC this evening. I figured I would put these on here to give a look at the weather at the beach. I also have good word that the beaches south of Wilmington, NC near the NC/SC border got hit very hard this evening with lots of lightning and very strong winds near 60mph! Thanks to Mike Ray for this information. I dont have any pics though. Credit goes to Richard Barnhill for the pics below.

Active Day Across Western/Central Piedmont

More thunderstorms developed today, many of them producing large hail from the size of a penny to even golf ball sized hail. There was a report of 2.00 inch diameter south of Wake County in Lillington. Storms did move across southern Wake but seemed to weaken as they moved north and new storms developed across the northern part of the county. RDU received .93 inches of rain today making a two day total of 2.11 inches. We are now only -.80 down for the year so there has been some improvement in the moderate to severe drought that has recently returned.

Currently there is a wide swath of showers and thunderstorms to our west moving very slowly east. It appears to have support from a disturbance in the atmosphere to our southwest and some upper level divergence. By that I mean air is spreading apart in the upper levels of the atmosphere and in order to fill the hole left by this process air has to rise. There is plenty of moisture around so there is still the chance of showers and possible thunder tonight. The last in the many disturbances to affect NC will approach tomorrow afternoon and evening so showers and thunderstorms are possible again late in the day and in the evening.

Torrential Rains/Flooding/Wet Microburst

Thunderstorms developed across the Triangle area this afternoon around 3pm. This activity basically sat over the same area for over an hour dumping heavy rains over areas near I-540 and RDU. Then it appeared that outflow boundaries and a shortwave trough ( disturbance in the atmosphere) swept across the south central portions of NC enhancing thunderstorm activity. The showers/storms over NW Wake county intensified into a possible severe thunderstorm that dumped upwards of 3-4 inches of rain in some areas. Hail was also reported in the 4:51 observation at RDU. The storms appeared to have trouble moving south into the area where I live but just up the road near Buck Jones Road and Nottingham drive in Cary near 1.50 to 2 inches of rain fell from 5-7pm. At around 6:15 a wet microburst occurred. The rain was so heavy that you could not see in front of you and the winds were howling blowing the rain sideways. Luckily the winds were not strong enough to knock trees down but I would guess we had 35-45 mph gusts for about a 2 minute period with the incredible rain. The rest of the time was characterized by heavy downpours and some occasional intense cloud-to-ground lightning. Below is the storm total product from the National Weather Service Doppler Radar. It clearly shows the locations where the heaviest rain occurred with one area over 5 inches just southeast of RDU off of I-40. I have marked my home location in with a yellow plus and my location during the storms with a red square. Also of note is the location of RDU airport with the runaways drawn in yellow and to markers labeled FFL. These are locations where flash flooding was reported from trained spotters. The area of yellow colors to the south of my home location was from the surprise thunderstorms that occurred at 4am on Friday. Tonight I would estimate that only .10 to .20 inches of rain fell in southeast Cary. The storms really had a hard time making it past US1/US64.


Here are some totals from around the area at various observation sites.

RDU: 1.18 in.
WRAL: 0.95 in.
NWS: .54 in.
Cardinal Gibbons High School: .95 in.
Greenwood Forest, Cary: 1.95 in.
Holloway, Cary: 1.67 in.

Surprise Strong Thunderstorms

So if you live in Chatham county or central/southern Wake County including Apex, Cary, Holly Springs, and Garner then you heard thunder and received some very heavy rain between 4am and 7am. Yes, my previous post said this would not happen until this weekend but some conditions combined to form these storm. I do not have time to get into details as I have to leave for work, but I will let you in on some of them from an area forecast discussion from the NWS at 4:30 am.. sorry if it is too technical but it shows how so many different parameters came into play.. and I will just say computer model guidance did not pick on these storms.

Through middle morning: it is a regular boundary fiesta out there this
morning with an outflow located over the central Piedmont dropping
south... a dissipating northward-moving outflow from earlier
convection over NE SC... and a preexisting trough stretching through
the northern coastal plain and eastern Piedmont. Isolated but strong
storms continue to develop along the old outflow from Halifax County
through southern sections of the Triangle... and these storms just
southeast of Raleigh have been backbuilding in response to 25-30 knots
low level jetting at around 1000 feet... resulting in localized
training and rain totals over 1.5 inches according to Doppler radar
estimates. These storms continue to be supported by surface mass
convergence... middle level positive vorticity advection... residual
instability (goes sounder shows a lifted index of -2 to -5)... and
upper divergence associated with a 75+ knots jet diving in from the
Ohio Valley. The middle and upper level forcing for ascent will be
shifting off the Virginia coast this morning... and the exit of these
features should bring a temporary end to precipitation chances toward middle
morning. 

Pleasant Friday; Rain/storms Possible This Weekend

One more day of comfortable outdoor weather for the next few days. Friday will be warm with a high in the upper 80s, but again with low dewpoints for June making it feel comfortable. The more humid weather will make a return this weekend, luckily without the excessive heat we usually get the humidity with. The upper level trough described last night appears to be re-organizing itself this weekend in a fashion where dynamics would be in place to support precipitation chances. Combine this with increasing low-level moisture and we should see some showers and storms on Saturday and Sunday. Timing of when the most coverage of showers/storms is still in question but it does appear like precipitation will occur sometime this weekend.

Oh what a difference a week makes

I am gonna show you how the atmosphere has changed from one week ago. The following plots show the winds that were observed by weather balloon launches that occur twice daily; once at 8am and once at 8pm. These launches are critical to being able to see the state of the atmosphere as well as aiding computer models with starting conditions. Plotted on the maps below are the 500 mb heights. For those who do not know what that is, 500 mb equates to anywhere from 17,000 to 19,o00 feet in the atmosphere. This is a key pressure level as lost of weather systems are found here. The lines are contoured every 60 meters. The numbers shown are in decameters .. sorry for the confusion to anyone who reads this. Other lines on here are for temperature at this level. The flags are the wind direction and speed. At this level in the atmosphere the winds are parallel to the black contour lines. The first plot is what was observed at 8:00pm Wednesday, June 11. At this time, a large area of higher heights and lines bent upward mean a ridge of high pressure. This means very hot weather as well as very light winds at this level( shown by a small amount of contours)



The next plot is from 8:00pm Wednesday, June 18. We now have a deep dipping of the lines or a trough of low pressure and heights... the complete opposite of what was observed last week. The lines are also closer together meaning stronger winds at this level.



This is a major reason why it has been much cooler today and will be in the low to middle 50s tomorrow morning with highs around 86 during the day.

Refreshing air is here

This will be a very short post....

Cooler and drier air is making its way into the area and I expect to see temperatures 55-57 the next few mornings. High temperatures will be 82 on Wednesday, 85 on Thursday and 87 on Friday. Average in morning lows below the 30 year average (65) you get 3 below average days! Enjoy this as this is first time we have seen temperatures this comfortable since the end of May. It is almost officially summer so anytime its as comfortable as the next couple of days you need to get out there and enjoy it!

Convection Developing along outflow boundary

And it may glance the Triangle within the next hour or two. I am very surprised to see development out there this evening. We saw our dew points drop into the middle 50s earlier today but they have recovered back to the middle 60s which is more than sufficient to support some thunderstorms. They do not appear too strong but when the outflow comes over your area it may get quite windy. A special observation at RDU International Airport was just sent out reporting a thunderstorm and winds out of the SSW with a dewpoint of 66. At Chapel Hill, a thunderstorm was reported with North winds. There is definately a boundary in between these locations and I have a suspicion that these storms are being aiding by this wind convergence forcing air to rise. With dewpoints in the middle 60s there is some instability also to support them. Of course it will pour right over my house because I washed my car this evening thanks to some birds pooping on them today while I was parked on campus :(. Below are some radar images from GRAE2.. and one of them is a 3d look at the storm!





UPDATE: 12:18am

It is possible that one of the storm cells is might produce some hail or damaging winds. Radar is indicating some hail in NW Wake county.

A break from the hot weather ahead

A cold front will swing through North Carolina tomorrow during the day bringing with it very dry air and much cooler temperatures. There is just a 20% chance of showers and storms with its passage. After the front moves through, much drier air will move in making it feel very comfortable outside especially overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be in the upper 50s at sunrise Wednesday and Thursday as well. During the day on Wednesday and Thursday, temperatures will range from 82-85 each day. Combine that with low dew points, a few comfortable June days are likely. Our normal high and low temperatures for June 18 and June 19 are 86 and 65 respectively. The forecast high and low temperatures will probably average below normal after having about 3 weeks of above normal temperatures. Looking into the future: Model predictions have been extremely in consistent regarding precipitation chances this weekend. Bottom line: The more clouds and precipitation we see this weekend the lower the temperatures will be. The big change here is that we are now gonna be under the influence of an east coast trough instead of a heat ridge so there could be disturbances flowing down the trough but are too difficult to predict timing, location and moisture.

Intense Pulse Storm, Much needed rainfall

If you have read previous posts, I mentioned about a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Well the mechanism and moisture behind the storms last night has moved southeast so I do not think we will see much at all today. It also remains to be seen what exactly happens when the next cold front swings through Monday night. This is the cold front that appears to drop us back down to normal temperatures during the week. Behind Saturday nights system, some drier air will be working in and this will have to be overcome tomorrow for us to see storms in the evening. More on this later..

If you were in Apex, southeastern Cary, and southwestern Raleigh yesterday between 5 and 7, then you were under an intense pulse severe thunderstorm. Around 5pm, isolated thunderstorms developed from Sanford to Apex. They were very slow movers and each storms outflow interacted with each other to form a bigger storm that became severe for a short time. Here is a radar grab from Gibson Ridge Level 2 Analyst Edition software taken at 5:42pm. This is during the time when Apex was getting hit with penny size hail (.75 inch diameter) and lots of lightning and strong winds (40-50mph). The storm then moved right over my house(southeastern Cary) bringing with it torrential rains, 40-50 mph winds, and intense cloud to ground lightning. I would have to estimate that .50 - .75 inches of rain fell in 15 minutes. The storm then moved east over southern Raleigh and then into Johnston County. Other severe storms occured last night as well in other parts of central and eastern NC.



Around midnight Sunday, new activity began to move back into the area. This was certainly less severe then activity earlier in the evening but if you lived in places like Lillington, Sanford, Southern Pines, and Fayetteville, you would have gotten your fair share of lightning and heavy rain. For us in Wake County, we had whats called stratiform rainfall. This rainfall was associated with the back side of a squall line of thunderstorms to our south and east. There was an occasional lightning strike also around 2 am. This rainfall however was beneficial however for adding to the totals already received earlier. Here is a snippet from this mornings area forecast discussion from the National Weather Service Forecast Discussion in Raleigh. " 2.5 to 3.5 inches were reported across the sandhills region... including Lee...Harnett and Cumberland counties...with the highest 24 hour total coming from a cocorahs report in Lillington of 5.0 inches!" Below is a summary of rainfall from 8am Saturday to 8am Sunday in Wake County..

Apex 2.1w 1.74"
Holly Springs 1.8sw 1.60"
Cary 0.4nnw 1.36"
Raleigh 2.2n 1.17"
Knightdale 2.6ssw 0.78"
Garner 5.6s 0.36"
rdu Airport (krdu) 0.25"

Drought returning and the possible return of smoke

The Drought Monitor came out yesterday, but it was too crazy around here with the smoke so I did not mention it. The story is not good. The drought in western NC is getting much worse and central NC is not getting back to moderately dry category.



We have not seen measurable rain now in almost 2 weeks. Our chances are there Sunday and possibly again on Monday but its not the type of set up that I like to see in the summer time to spark thunderstorms. There is just a 10-20% chance Saturday evening as well. Looking out in the future, the weather pattern appears to be changing to a more normal temperature pattern with temperatures in the 80s for a while but significant rain appear unlikely. We really need a weak tropical system to move into the southeast and just sit on top of us for days to really make up the deficit we started last year and the one beginning to add up this year.


Smoke may also return to the skies later this afternoon. We still have easterly wind flow and looking at observations to our east, visibilities are coming down once again. So just dont let your guard down if your sensitive to smoke as it is possible it returns later today and tonight.

What a Smoky Day!

Incredible to see such a thick layer of smoke almost all day today. There were times this afternoon that visibility was down to .5 miles. Observations at RDU since 3:51 am Thursday have had smoke in them. It was remarkable going on to the roof of Jordan Hall to look at the smoke ( And smell it :/) and barely see the bell tower and most of centennial campus. I was not even able to make out downtown Raleigh which is very close to campus. We are currently under a Dense Smoke Advisory through 11am Friday for the smoke and visibilities down to .5 to .25 miles possible at times. Its hard to pick out when this will occur as it appears that some areas have seen improvement but with a nocturnal inversion and continued easterly wind flow I suspect there will still be smoke moving in. Tomorrow afternoon winds should begin to become more southeasterly and help start to move it more northeast instead of west. Air quality will still be a huge issue tomorrow so you are sensitive to pollutants and have allergies/asthma do not exert yourself outdoors. Instead of me blabbing on I am going to post a bunch of images and pictures of this smoky June 12. Click images for full size!




Image courtesy of NASA AQUA MODIS. Just in case your not sure what this is showing, it is a satellite overpass that captured the smoke trail from the wildfire near Manteo to central NC.






Images courtesy WRAL.






Images taken on top of Jordan Hall at 1:30 pm.





Images courtesy of Dr. Sandra Yuter; North Carolina State University. The first image was taken at 8:42am and the second image was taken at 2:00pm from a webcam. Very cool seeing how visibility decreased tremendously throughout the day. Images looking towards Centennial Campus

The smell of smoke in Cary

On the way home this evening, the smell of smoke was definitely present in the air. The smoke is being transported west from the fire ongoing west of Manteo NC by easterly winds. Let me tell you that it was a distinct smell. My dads scanner has been busy with calls coming into the 911 about smoke investigations and even the smell of chlorine. I guess people dont listen to the news or the weather as much and didnt know that the smoke was expected to make it into the region. Other than that, pulse severe thunderstorms developed across the I-95 region, southern and western Piedmont and sandhills. Outflow boundaries out ran the storms and these boundaries made it all the way into wake county this evening. These boundaries are from cold air that develops from evaporation when rain begins to fall out of the storms into drier environment air. This process cools the air down and because thunderstorms have a tremendous amount of precipitation falling, this process can be quite vigorous and really cool the air quickly. This rush of air combines with the downward momentum from the precipitation and downdraft to form a downburst of air that can take down trees. This process continues and it will eventually rush out ahead of the storms. Sometimes these boundaries can form new storms along them but the boundary rushed out ahead of the storms eventually choking them of the unstable air needed to form storms. The cold pool air described above is much more stable. I believe this helped to transport the smoke plume into the area as well.

We did see some slightly lower temperatures today and Thursday should be very close to today.. near 90. There is just a small chance of a shower or storm. Widespread rain does not look likely for the next few days. A cold front should approach the area Sat night and Sunday bringing with it a chance for showers and storms. Right now, I am not confident on anything more than widely scattered activity.

Fourth 100+ day in row, dry conditions continue

Not much to add this evening other than we hit 101 at RDU today making Tuesday, June 10 the fourth day in a row of 100+ degree heat and another record was shattered. Since we probably wont be breaking records for the rest of the week I am going to post all the records that were broken below. One thing that stands out is that records are being broken from 1947 and 1999. Must have been some early season heat waves then too.

FRI June 6: 99 Breaks old record of 98 set in 2002
SAT June 7: 100 Breaks old record of 97 set in 1947 * Earliest to hit 100 at RDU since 1944
SUN June 8: 101 Breaks old record of 100 set in 1999
MON June 9: 100 Breaks old record of 98 set in 1999
TUES June 10: 101 Breaks old record of 97 set in 1947.

As I said above, this should be the last day of record breaking heat for the rest of the week. It will still be hot though, but it will not be as oppressive. I did mention some chances for thunderstorms this week but it is now looking less likely that this will occur. Our best chance stands to be tomorrow and most of the activity should stay south of the Triangle. This is not a good situation. I heard lots of complaints from people back in May when it was pouring rain every other day. Well now we have not seen more than .3 inches officially since May 20. If we do not get rain soon with this heat we just had, all the rain we saw in May wont even matter as drought conditions will return. Hopefully we can get some rain this week or over the weekend although right now my confidence is low. Regarding temperatures, 90 tomorrow looks good and 88-92 through Saturday. Hot yes, but not extreme like we just dealt with.

I will close out this post with something very interesting that I saw today on visible satellite imagery. I am sure you all have heard about the fire along the coast. Well the smoke can be seen stretching into the Atlantic and then up towards NJ. The image below is from 5pm today and the stream of thin looking clouds off the coast that curls up the eastern seaboard is smoke from the fire. Also of interest is the thunderstorm activity that developed off the Appalachian mountains. Speaking of storms, there was some storms that developed near where those fires are in east NC. Wonder if they came from pyrocumulonimbus clouds? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pyrocumulonimbus

Quick Update

Im eating lunch taking a break from research and just checked the latest observation from RDU and its already 98 out there. I think 100+ is definitely reachable today as clouds have been slow to develop. I am also not sure about getting relief from storms today or tonight. It still looks likely temperatures will drop down back to 90 tomorrow.

Is the heat wave beginning to break?

First; Todays high was officially 100. This broke the old record of 98 set back in 1999. This is the fourth record breaking day in this heat wave in a row and third day of triple digit heat.
Now will this heat subside?

It appears that the early season heat wave is beginning to break down as we speak. Here is some evidence.



For the past six days, the ridge of high pressure at the surface and in the atmosphere was not allowing for convection (Thunderstorm) activity. In the satellite image above, large cloud masses in southern NC and SC are indications of convection. This means that the atmosphere is starting to become more favorable for vertical cloud development. The ridge has been serving as a cap and any clouds that did develop were flat and dissipated within 15 minutes. The surface high is beginning to shift off the coast of NC and the upper ridge will continue to weaken as we move through Tuesday. I expect to see lots of convection in the western NC regions as we go through the day tomorrow. Some of this activity will move into the Raleigh area in the evening and overnight. A cold front (Not really cold behind it, but slightly cooler nonetheless) will also approaching from the NW. This front might be sitting directly on top of us Wednesday allowing for another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing very heavy rain and dangerous frequent cloud to ground lightning. As far as temperatures go, Tuesday will still be very hot but I am not quite sure we will hit 100 again. I feel that more clouds and the fact the ridge will be weakening will not allow us to hit 100. I am going to go with 99 ( Yeah very close to 100 indeed) which would be yet another record high. Wednesday will be several degrees cooler with the chance of showers/thunderstorms and much more in the way of clouds. If the front does pass through, we may in fact get in a flow of air off the northeastern Atlantic keeping us much cooler than the past six days. Highs on Wednesday will be near 90.

Looking ahead.. Thursday through Sunday.. Temperatures should stay in the upper 80s to near 90 with chances of showers and storms in the afternoon. There might be a day where nothing occurs but it is difficult to pinpoint triggers for storms out in advance so we just mention the possibility.

Another Record Set Today.. and One Possible Tuesday..

A high of 100 was reached again today making Monday, June 9 the third day in row of triple digit heat. An official record report has not been released yet from the National Weather Service so I am not going to say it has not gotten any higher as they released a preliminary high temperature reading before 5 so the media can have something to go off of. I will have a more in depth update later this evening as I look at the changes coming but not before another day potentially at 100.

Welcome; Quick Update on Heat Wave

Good evening all and welcome to my new blog. I have never blogged before so this will be a test to see if I can keep up. I will mainly be posting about the weather.. I mean what else would I talk about. The weather fascinates me and I hope maybe to get some you all who do read this to become just a little more interested.

So I am sure by now you all know it has been extremely hot the last several days. A stacked ridge of high pressure at the surface and upper atmosphere has been stuck over us the last five days. When a high pressure system is sitting over you aloft and at the surface, it can get extremely hot due to limited amounts of cloud cover from sinking air which allows the air to warm. Since the high pressure extends off the coast and out into the Atlantic, low level moisture is plentiful as it is being fed into the area from the flow around this high so it makes it feel worse. All of these conditions have led to the first heat wave of Meteorological summer (June - August). Below are the past 5 days high temperatures and records if they occured. Oh and not to forget our normal high for this time of year is 84.

Wednesday 6/4: 94
Thursday 6/5: 96
Friday 6/6: 99 RECORD; breaks old record of 98 set in 2002
Saturday 6/7: 100 RECORD; breaks old record of 97 set in 1947; Also the earliest RDU has gotten to 100 since 1944 when record began.
Sunday 6/8: 101 RECORD; breaks old record of 100 set in 1999.

The next 5 days....

It appears that this pattern will began to break down slightly this week, but not before one possibly two more days of 100+ degree heat. Then temperatures will be near 90 the rest of the week. Some computer model guidance has the area reaching 100 on Tuesday but I am not 100% sure on this just yet. Monday it is almost a definite though. Tuesday through Friday, the ridge begins to break down and move off the coast leading to an atmosphere that will support more clouds and the chance of showers and thunderstorms especially Wednesday through Friday. I am not gonna get into details on the reason why storms might be possible just yet. If the chance continues to show up on data in the coming days then I will. Here is my forecast for the week....

MONDAY 6/9: Mostly sunny, very hot and humid with a high of 102. Low around 73
TUESDAY 6/10: Partly cloudy, very hot and humid with a high around 99. Low around 75. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
WEDNESDAY 6/11: Partly cloudy, hot and humid with a high around 92. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening. Low around 75
THURSDAY 6/12: Partly cloudy, hot and humid with a high around 90. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon and evening. Low around 76
FRIDAY 6/13: Partly cloudy, hot and humid with a high around 88. A chance of showers/storms.