Exceptional Day Ahead; A First Look at July 4

A cold front is currently sweeping through the area. No its not going to get cold, but we will not be dealing the the 90s tomorrow...possibly not even Wednesday. Our normal maximum temperature for July 1 is 88 and our normal minimum temperature is 67. With such a deep upper level trough overhead tomorrow as well as much cooler air I expect to see Highs top out at 84-86. You will wake up in the morning with temperatures around 60.. close to 7 degrees below where we should be. On Wednesday I do expect it be slightly warmer but I do not think it will be much above 88 or 89. Wednesday morning may even be cooler then Tuesday morning with temperatures in the upper 50s. It will also be comfortable outside with dewpoints in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Looking ahead to Friday, July 4..

I am sure many of you are wondering what the weather will be for your outdoor plans on July 4. Since some people who read this are not necessarily located in the Raleigh area I will outline my thoughts as things stand from west to east across NC. Temperatures will be warming back up into the lower 90s on Thursday, July 3 and I think this will continue through July 4. The biggest concern I have is how quickly moisture returns. What is prognosticated to happen is a surface high pressure will move offshore and begin to feed low level moisture into the state from the Atlantic and Gulf. A frontal boundary will also be approaching the state from the NW associated with another upper level trough. Since high pressure will be located offshore I do not think the front will just race through the state..instead slowing down as it approaches. This should lead to some fair weather cumulus clouds all across the state but right now any development of thunderstorms appears isolated at best. With a slow front eventually stalling somewhere either in VA or NC the stage will then be set for more showers and storms over the weekend. Temperatures will range from the upper 80s across the mountains and foothills to lower 90s across the central and eastern part of the state. Sunshine should be abundant with just the typical summertime cumulus clouds. One or two may form into a storm late in the day, but it will be isolated at best.

Weather prediction is not 100% accurate especially four days out so keep it here for more updates on July 4th weather. One thing I am pretty sure about not happening is a wash out. I find the chances of this almost zero!