Is the heat wave beginning to break?

First; Todays high was officially 100. This broke the old record of 98 set back in 1999. This is the fourth record breaking day in this heat wave in a row and third day of triple digit heat.
Now will this heat subside?

It appears that the early season heat wave is beginning to break down as we speak. Here is some evidence.



For the past six days, the ridge of high pressure at the surface and in the atmosphere was not allowing for convection (Thunderstorm) activity. In the satellite image above, large cloud masses in southern NC and SC are indications of convection. This means that the atmosphere is starting to become more favorable for vertical cloud development. The ridge has been serving as a cap and any clouds that did develop were flat and dissipated within 15 minutes. The surface high is beginning to shift off the coast of NC and the upper ridge will continue to weaken as we move through Tuesday. I expect to see lots of convection in the western NC regions as we go through the day tomorrow. Some of this activity will move into the Raleigh area in the evening and overnight. A cold front (Not really cold behind it, but slightly cooler nonetheless) will also approaching from the NW. This front might be sitting directly on top of us Wednesday allowing for another chance of showers and thunderstorms. Any storms that develop will be capable of producing very heavy rain and dangerous frequent cloud to ground lightning. As far as temperatures go, Tuesday will still be very hot but I am not quite sure we will hit 100 again. I feel that more clouds and the fact the ridge will be weakening will not allow us to hit 100. I am going to go with 99 ( Yeah very close to 100 indeed) which would be yet another record high. Wednesday will be several degrees cooler with the chance of showers/thunderstorms and much more in the way of clouds. If the front does pass through, we may in fact get in a flow of air off the northeastern Atlantic keeping us much cooler than the past six days. Highs on Wednesday will be near 90.

Looking ahead.. Thursday through Sunday.. Temperatures should stay in the upper 80s to near 90 with chances of showers and storms in the afternoon. There might be a day where nothing occurs but it is difficult to pinpoint triggers for storms out in advance so we just mention the possibility.