Heat Leaving Fast

There is no real indication that I can see that shows that we will not have another spell of some heat before we head into October, but it is looking less and less likely. Monday will be a transition day for us here in NC. A cold front that picked up Ike yesterday and raced him into the Great Lakes and now Canada is west of the Appalachian mountains currently. Behind this front is a cool fall-like surface high pressure. Under this high, temperatures are ranging from the 50s to the lower 70s. This air will not fully get here thanks to the strong upper level ridge sitting off the east coast. The ridge will actually slow the upper level pattern down somewhat meaning there will still be plenty of moisture advecting into the region from southwesterly flow aloft. A trough will be setting up just west of the mountains due to this trough, areas of rising motion will be moving in overhead. At the surface, cool, moist northeasterly flow off the Atlantic from the cool Canadian High will help bring in a fall like overrunning event with low clouds and areas of light rain and drizzle Tuesday - Wednesday. It will be somewhat similar to last weeks overcast regime, but the air will certainly be cooler and you will notice it.

In summary:

Monday will be a transition day with the cold front coming across the state. The cold front will be lying somewhere from the eastern Piedmont to the Coastal Plain tomorrow afternoon. Rain should be hard to come by with this passage, but cloud cover should prevent temperatures from getting into the 90s like they did this weekend. In fact, new data out tonight suggests the temperatures may not get above 85. The cooler air will begin to arrive towards evening with temperatures dropping into the 70s with dew points lowering into the low 60s possibly upper 50s.

By Tuesday morning, rain, mainly light should be across the area with temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. These temperatures may in fact not budge throughout the day if rain is more widespread.

By Wednesday morning, chances of light rain continue. Low overcast or fog could also be present. If clouds to break up slightly before sunrise temperatures could drop into the upper 50s.

Rest of the week: The trough should begin to lift out allowing for drier air to move in aloft. The question remains how much quickly does the lower level moisture leave the area. There are many cases where models erode the low cloud deck to quick. Since this is 3 days away, specifics will have to wait until we get closer but cooler temperatures during the day and night can be expected through Friday even if there is some sun as the airmass across much of the nation will be cooler.

Some climate information:
RDU normal high and low for Monday: 82, 62
RDU normal high and low for Tuesday - Thursday: 81, 60
RDU normal high and low for Friday: 81, 60

The point I am trying to make above is the next week should have average temperatures close to normal if not below and also shows that very hot weather will become less and less likely other than the typical anomaly that will always occur due to temporary changes in the jet stream.

I am taking the GRE in two weeks so my posting has been rather lack luster lately. I will try to keep updating take myself sane as I will be studying a lot more over the coming weeks.