Here are the pics I took:
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
Pics From Tonights AWESOME SKY
Well, most of us in Wake County did not see anything significant, the sky was amazing and there was some decent wind gusts. The storms that moved through the area this evening developed west of Charlotte in response to an upper atmospheric impulse which may have come from old storms that occurred in the midwest yesterday. There was also a disturbance that moved through northern NC early this afternoon which sparked off severe storms across NE NC. There was a good number of severe weather reports this afternoon and evening across NC.
Here are the pics I took:
Here are the pics I took:
Monday, July 7, 2008
Whoa Bertha
I have not posted about Bertha since last Thursday. Well this morning at 5am, Tropical Storm Bertha was classified as a hurricane, the first of the 2008 season. 12 hours later, Hurricane Bertha is now classified as a Major Category 3 hurricane.. wow. Here is a satellite image of Bertha and you will notice a well organized hurricane.
The Hurricane Center has Bertha weakening in the coming days as it heads Northwestward over open waters of the Atlantic. Bertha may have in fact topped out already, but that is not a sure bet as Bertha was not forecast to strengthen as much as she did. Here is the predicted 5 day track as of 5pm today. If I find other cool imagery I will post it here later.
The Hurricane Center has Bertha weakening in the coming days as it heads Northwestward over open waters of the Atlantic. Bertha may have in fact topped out already, but that is not a sure bet as Bertha was not forecast to strengthen as much as she did. Here is the predicted 5 day track as of 5pm today. If I find other cool imagery I will post it here later.
Some Hail In Cary & Beneficial Rains Continue
This evening I finally made my first Skywarn Spotter Report to the National Weather Service. For about 2-3 minutes there was dime to close to penny sized hail falling in my backyard. It didnt last long and it was sporadic but there was definitely hail. I was also scanning the Skywarn frequency for this region and there was pea to dime sized hail near Crossroads Plaza and Tryon and Piney Plains Rd in Cary. There was some severe weather reported all across the region. The lightning was incredibly vivid during these storms. Sunday made the third day in row of significant rains across the Triangle especially at the official reporting site of RDU International Airport. Here are the totals for the last three days and some other stats:
Friday July 4: 0.62 in.
Saturday July 5: 0.86 in.
Sunday July 6: 0.85 in.
3-day Total: 2.33 in.
2008 Total Through July 6: 23.40 in.
2007 Total Through July 6: 18.15 in.
Normal Through July 6: 22.33 in.
That makes precipitaiton for 2008 above normal levels at RDU. Last year at this time we were close to 4 inches below normal. This type of rain does help the drought but you got to remember that some of this rain from thunderstorms runs off and does not really play a role in the drought categories. Any rain helps though as long as we do not go into some long dry period again as we head into the rest of July and August.
We have a chance of showers and storms tomorrow again. I am not quite as positive on the chances as I was for Saturday and Sunday, but there will definately be activity going on in the afternoon and evening with heavy downpours/ lightning/ possibly some hail and strong winds. The chance becomes less middle of the week but its not zero so that is always a positive! Can we make it 4 days in a row of significant rain in the Triangle area?
Friday July 4: 0.62 in.
Saturday July 5: 0.86 in.
Sunday July 6: 0.85 in.
3-day Total: 2.33 in.
2008 Total Through July 6: 23.40 in.
2007 Total Through July 6: 18.15 in.
Normal Through July 6: 22.33 in.
That makes precipitaiton for 2008 above normal levels at RDU. Last year at this time we were close to 4 inches below normal. This type of rain does help the drought but you got to remember that some of this rain from thunderstorms runs off and does not really play a role in the drought categories. Any rain helps though as long as we do not go into some long dry period again as we head into the rest of July and August.
We have a chance of showers and storms tomorrow again. I am not quite as positive on the chances as I was for Saturday and Sunday, but there will definately be activity going on in the afternoon and evening with heavy downpours/ lightning/ possibly some hail and strong winds. The chance becomes less middle of the week but its not zero so that is always a positive! Can we make it 4 days in a row of significant rain in the Triangle area?
Saturday, July 5, 2008
Yes, I was WAYYYY OFF
Yeah I mentioned a "Slight" chance of storms July 4th in the evening.... "There is just a slight chance of a shower/storm across the mountains and then again towards the coast. Through the Triangle, it should stay dry through the whole day but an isolated shower could occur so do not be surprised if you get under one." But I was off by alot... because the storms tonight were not isolated thunderstorms. This is an accumulated rainfall map estimated from Doppler Radar.. There is a large area that saw precipitation especially from a line from Charlotte to Raleigh. Some areas saw 2-3 inches of rain. Some areas saw nothing.. but this kind of coverage to me is no slight chance especially from Raleigh westward. Areas to the east saw nothing.. explanation as to what I think happened below.
Also the lightning was nearly continuous around western Wake County just when the time fireworks displays were going to begin.. delaying them until Saturday night.. but im afraid it will be tough to get those in as well.
It appeared to me that low level wind convergence increasing in the evening at the same time when low level moisture was beginning to increase. This convergence lifts this moist air and as long as there is no cap or lid stopping the air from rising( Warmer air aloft,, colder air is much more unstable) then thunderstorms can form. As the map of precip shows above.. areas where the best ingredients were mainly from Raleigh west. Places east still seemed to be capped or just not enough lift to sustain storm development. The activity in Cary,Apex, west Raleigh struggled to move east the southeastern part of the county and I feel difference in atmospheric conditions was definately apparent by storms barely moving past this point.
So yes I was wrong. There were mixed signals all day long on whether or not storms were going to be able to form. Most computer model guidance played catch up on the developing conditions, but there was one thats has been horrible of late that actually seemed to generate precipitation and it appeared to be on to something. It was one of those days where even us Meteorologists have kinda take the wait and see approach as there is not a clear cut indication as to whether or not storms will fire. Tomorrow, more moisture, lift and instability should be present and showers and storms should develop in the afternoon and evening. I think alot more people will see showers/storms. Who will see them first, or late and how much.. well thats always a question that will be difficult to answer.
Also the lightning was nearly continuous around western Wake County just when the time fireworks displays were going to begin.. delaying them until Saturday night.. but im afraid it will be tough to get those in as well.
It appeared to me that low level wind convergence increasing in the evening at the same time when low level moisture was beginning to increase. This convergence lifts this moist air and as long as there is no cap or lid stopping the air from rising( Warmer air aloft,, colder air is much more unstable) then thunderstorms can form. As the map of precip shows above.. areas where the best ingredients were mainly from Raleigh west. Places east still seemed to be capped or just not enough lift to sustain storm development. The activity in Cary,Apex, west Raleigh struggled to move east the southeastern part of the county and I feel difference in atmospheric conditions was definately apparent by storms barely moving past this point.
So yes I was wrong. There were mixed signals all day long on whether or not storms were going to be able to form. Most computer model guidance played catch up on the developing conditions, but there was one thats has been horrible of late that actually seemed to generate precipitation and it appeared to be on to something. It was one of those days where even us Meteorologists have kinda take the wait and see approach as there is not a clear cut indication as to whether or not storms will fire. Tomorrow, more moisture, lift and instability should be present and showers and storms should develop in the afternoon and evening. I think alot more people will see showers/storms. Who will see them first, or late and how much.. well thats always a question that will be difficult to answer.
Thursday, July 3, 2008
Independence Day/ Weekend Forecast
Independence Day:
July 4th will be partly cloudy, hot and slightly more humid with temperatures mainly in the lower 90s all across the state. I expect a high of 92 around the Triangle area. There is just a slight chance of a shower/storm across the mountains and then again towards the coast. Through the Triangle, it should stay dry through the whole day but an isolated shower could occur so do not be surprised if you get under one. There could be some periods where there will be more clouds then sun but it should not ruin the day. Temperatures during the evening for fireworks etc will be in the lower 80s. Humidity will be on the rise throughout the evening so it may begin to become uncomfortable as the evening wears on.
Weekend:
There appears to be a very good chance of seeing showers and thunderstorms Saturday and then again on Sunday. Ingredients appear to be coming to together for beneficial rains across the entire southeast. It will not be raining every hour of both these days, but the afternoons and evenings should see very good coverage of showers and storms across the state. Temperatures will stay shy of the 90 degree mark due to hefty amounts of moisture and increased cloud cover. It will also be very humid both days as I expect dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
July 4th will be partly cloudy, hot and slightly more humid with temperatures mainly in the lower 90s all across the state. I expect a high of 92 around the Triangle area. There is just a slight chance of a shower/storm across the mountains and then again towards the coast. Through the Triangle, it should stay dry through the whole day but an isolated shower could occur so do not be surprised if you get under one. There could be some periods where there will be more clouds then sun but it should not ruin the day. Temperatures during the evening for fireworks etc will be in the lower 80s. Humidity will be on the rise throughout the evening so it may begin to become uncomfortable as the evening wears on.
Weekend:
There appears to be a very good chance of seeing showers and thunderstorms Saturday and then again on Sunday. Ingredients appear to be coming to together for beneficial rains across the entire southeast. It will not be raining every hour of both these days, but the afternoons and evenings should see very good coverage of showers and storms across the state. Temperatures will stay shy of the 90 degree mark due to hefty amounts of moisture and increased cloud cover. It will also be very humid both days as I expect dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Bertha Is Born
Tropical Storm Bertha was born at 11am this morning. It was a Tropical Depression this morning at 5am, but was shown to have characteristics of a weak Tropical Storm so the National Hurricane Center Upgraded it. Right now it is expected to trek across the open waters of the Atlantic. Below is a image from satellite. It is not well organized but it does have the definitive shape of a tropical cyclone.
Right now she has maximum winds at 40mph which is the minimal strength for a tropical storm. An update comes out in about an hour from the National Hurricane Center so if anything significant changes I will post it here. This is very early in the Hurricane Season to have a classified system this far east in the Atlantic. What is known as the Cape Verde Season does not normally begin until mid August. Back in 1996, Hurricane Bertha came through eastern NC in the middle of July. Bertha 1996 also formed from a Tropical Wave that came off the coast of Africa but did not get its act together until much further west then Bertha 2008. Very cool to see development out there this early in the season!
Right now she has maximum winds at 40mph which is the minimal strength for a tropical storm. An update comes out in about an hour from the National Hurricane Center so if anything significant changes I will post it here. This is very early in the Hurricane Season to have a classified system this far east in the Atlantic. What is known as the Cape Verde Season does not normally begin until mid August. Back in 1996, Hurricane Bertha came through eastern NC in the middle of July. Bertha 1996 also formed from a Tropical Wave that came off the coast of Africa but did not get its act together until much further west then Bertha 2008. Very cool to see development out there this early in the season!
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Oh What A BBBBUUUTIFUL DAY!
Today was about as nice as it can get in NC on July 1. The temperature barely got over the 80 degree mark with a high of 81. Temperatures will range from 56-59 across the area tomorrow morning. I am so tempted to not call for 90 tomorrow as statistical model guidance was way to warm today, but the fact that this cooler air mass is already going to be moving out combined with a high sun angle will probably make it close to 90. It will be very comfortable though with no humidity.
A few other topics to discuss:
July 4th forecast has not changed much. 93-95 temperature range with lots of sun and a slight increase in humidity. 10% chance of a storm.
According to the National Weather Service:
Warmest June ever recorded at RDU since records kept (1944).
Lastly, there is a tropical disturbance near the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. Some computer models develop this system into a tropical storm as it head westward across the Atlantic. Something to keep an eye on!
A few other topics to discuss:
July 4th forecast has not changed much. 93-95 temperature range with lots of sun and a slight increase in humidity. 10% chance of a storm.
According to the National Weather Service:
Warmest June ever recorded at RDU since records kept (1944).
Lastly, there is a tropical disturbance near the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa. Some computer models develop this system into a tropical storm as it head westward across the Atlantic. Something to keep an eye on!
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