Yes, I was WAYYYY OFF

Yeah I mentioned a "Slight" chance of storms July 4th in the evening.... "There is just a slight chance of a shower/storm across the mountains and then again towards the coast. Through the Triangle, it should stay dry through the whole day but an isolated shower could occur so do not be surprised if you get under one." But I was off by alot... because the storms tonight were not isolated thunderstorms. This is an accumulated rainfall map estimated from Doppler Radar.. There is a large area that saw precipitation especially from a line from Charlotte to Raleigh. Some areas saw 2-3 inches of rain. Some areas saw nothing.. but this kind of coverage to me is no slight chance especially from Raleigh westward. Areas to the east saw nothing.. explanation as to what I think happened below.


Also the lightning was nearly continuous around western Wake County just when the time fireworks displays were going to begin.. delaying them until Saturday night.. but im afraid it will be tough to get those in as well.

It appeared to me that low level wind convergence increasing in the evening at the same time when low level moisture was beginning to increase. This convergence lifts this moist air and as long as there is no cap or lid stopping the air from rising( Warmer air aloft,, colder air is much more unstable) then thunderstorms can form. As the map of precip shows above.. areas where the best ingredients were mainly from Raleigh west. Places east still seemed to be capped or just not enough lift to sustain storm development. The activity in Cary,Apex, west Raleigh struggled to move east the southeastern part of the county and I feel difference in atmospheric conditions was definately apparent by storms barely moving past this point.

So yes I was wrong. There were mixed signals all day long on whether or not storms were going to be able to form. Most computer model guidance played catch up on the developing conditions, but there was one thats has been horrible of late that actually seemed to generate precipitation and it appeared to be on to something. It was one of those days where even us Meteorologists have kinda take the wait and see approach as there is not a clear cut indication as to whether or not storms will fire. Tomorrow, more moisture, lift and instability should be present and showers and storms should develop in the afternoon and evening. I think alot more people will see showers/storms. Who will see them first, or late and how much.. well thats always a question that will be difficult to answer.