Gustav, Hanna, and Ike

The 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season is about as active as it gets in my opinion. We have Gustav over land with still hurricane force wind gusts, but now it has weakened to a Tropical Storm. lashing areas of Louisiana. New Orleans appeared to have gotten through this better than Katrina but by no means am I saying it was a dud. Gustav made landfall as a strong category 2 hurricane with winds at 110 mph.

Now onto the next tropical cyclone to possibly effect the U.S. Earlier this morning, Tropical Storm Hanna was not very organized and was not expected to become a hurricane until Wednesday. She got much better organized despite being in an environment not conducive for strengthening. Hurricane Hunters flew in and found a much stronger Hanna and she was designated a hurricane at 1:30 pm. Hanna has since stalled in the Bahamas and is expected to meander for the next day or so as the steering environment is weak. As of 11pm, Hanna has 80 mph winds and a minimum central pressure of 978mb. One of the issues Hanna has been facing is northerly shear which tends to blow off most of the clouds and convection to the south and prevents the storm from really venting itself the way a strong hurricane can. The National Hurricane Center says this shear should relax as an upper level anticyclone will move overhead. This should help to help outflow in all quadrants which acts as exhaust. I am not going to get into specifics with the exact track right now because no discernible movement is being made by Hanna. I will just say this.. Anyone from Flordia to the North Carolina coast could see this landfall there. Because of the way the east coast is shaped, any 20-50 mile deviation could affect the landfall point. Below is the New 11pm 5-day track and intensity from The National Hurricane Center shown on Wunderground color maps.



More on Hanna tomorrow evening.

Quickly onto Tropical Storm Ike which was designated this afternoon at 5pm. Not much to say here except this is another tropical cyclone that needs to be watched closely. Here is the new 11pm 5-day track again from the National Hurricane Center on Wunderground maps.




And for your viewing enjoyment, you can see Tropical Storm Gustav over the Gulf States, Hurricane Hanna over the Bahamas and Tropical Storm Ike over the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.

Gustav Weakening Slightly.. Reintensification Likely

Gustav has weakening slightly as he interacted with Cuba Saturday Night. Max winds are 135 mph and the pressure is up to 958 mb but is still a category 4. Latest satellite imagery show the eye has been covered by clouds and the eyewall appears to have weakened. I also think an eye wall replacement cycle has occured and this might be why it looks a little ragged. Cloud tops are still extremely cold so i feel strengthening is inevitable. All indications point to Gustav regaining strength during his treck over the warm gulf waters and the loop current. Its anyones guess if he becomes a 5 or stays a 4, but as was seen on Saturday anything is possible.

August 30, 2008 5PM GUSTAV ADVISORY

Latest Info as 5pm on Gustav:

MAX WINDS: 150 mph... 6 away from being a category 5
Pressure: 942 mb

The Hurricane Center feels that Gustav could become a category 5 hurricane tonight with a landfall in the US as a category 4 hurricane. I will have more later tonight and tomorrow as I will not be able to post this evening. One thing I will say is hopefully Gustav will be peaking early and start to level off and come back down to a lower major hurricane status before landfall. Storm surge will be a big issue for Louisiana and if it makes landfall west of New Orleans, they may have to contend with 20-30ft storm surge...

UNBELIEVABLE IMAGE.. taken about 4:10pm




and at 5:01 pm.. Gustav is a monster!!!

Gustav Now A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE

Air Force Reconnaissance recently reported a much more intense Gustav.. with max winds near 145 mph and a pressure of 935 mb. Lets put this in perspective here.. Last night at 11pm.. he had a pressure of 974 mb, 5am today a pressure of 965 mb and 11am a pressure of 954 mb. He is now at 945 mb.. a rapidly deepening hurricane. Scary images below...




WOW!




UPDATE: 2:20pm

The National Hurricane Center now feels it is definitely possible that Gustav becomes a category 5 hurricane before it hits Cuba. It only needs 11 more mph added to wind speed for this to occur. They are still flying into the storm and I will be able to update until about 6 pm tonight.. thereafter.. I will not be able to update until at the earliest midnight Sunday when Gustav will be emerging into the southern Gulf. Here is an updated forecast track with new intensity updated. Note the category 4 point right before landfall with New Orleans to its right..




UPDATE: 3:17 PM

New satellite images show Gustav glancing the Isle of Youth.

Visible image as of 3:02pm



Infrared image as of 3:02pm

Gustav a Major Category 3 Hurricane

Gustav is now a major Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds! His pressure was reported earlier this morning by the Hurricane Hunters to be 954 mb. A new plane surveying the storm right now so we should have a good idea if Gustav continues to strengthen or level off. Forecast track has not changed much and it is still possible Gustav becomes a major category 4 hurricane in the south Gulf Of Mexico on Sunday. .. he could even be a 4 before making landfall in Cuba.. Breathtaking images below.. yet quite scary.

Visible Image @ 12:45pm



Infrared Image @ 12:45pm (Bright colors indicate deep cold cloud tops)

Gustav a Category 2 Hurricane

Gustav became a hurricane again early Friday afternoon. He is now a category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds.. Here is the latest statement from the National Hurricane Center..

HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
210 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008


DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 100
MPH...155 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

He appears to be continuing to intensify as of this post and is now only 10 mph in wind speed away from being a major category 3 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson scale. This may very well be the case when we all wake up in the morning. Gustav is still expected to make a landfall on the western tip of Cuba. This landmass may serve to temporary halt intensification or even weaken him, but once over the Southern Gulf, Gustav has a chance at becoming a category 4 hurricane (131-155 mph). The consensus is then for Gustav to move NW towards the central Gulf Coast west of New Orleans making landfall possibly as a category 3. The reason for the possible weakening is cooler waters in the northern Gulf Of Mexico. One needs to note that hurricanes go through cycles that can serve to weaken them even though conditions are ripe for intensification. These cannot be predicted! For now here is a satellite image of Gustav.. the eye is hard to pick out but Hurricane Hunters have found a 30nm closed eyewall. More on Gustav and tropical storm hanna later today/

Brother and Sister in the Atlantic Basin

Just wanted to update on Gustav and Hanna. Gustav is packing winds of near 70 mph which is very close to hurricane strength (74 mph or greater). He is moving very close to the shores of Jamaica. Hanna is north of the Leeward Islands and she is packing 50 mph winds. The potential track and strength of Gustav is troubling as he will likely strengthen rapidly once he moves away from Jamaica. He is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico and threaten the Gulf coast states. Lets hope it does not hit the main oil rig region but right now that looks possible that it will threaten that area. Please note in the images below, the track forecast of each storm after day 3 have very little skill and could easily change by hundreds of miles in later forecasts. Hanna is expected to meander near the Bahamas in the coming days and it appears she could also strengthen rapidly as well. Both storms do have the potential to become major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater) in the coming days. The NHC does mention this about Hanna even though it is not show on the track forecast.


Gustav 5-Day Projected Track



Hanna 5-Day Projected Track



Gustav middle and Hanna right(Infrared Satellite Image..Brighter colors mean strong convection and cold cloud tops)