Friday, August 29, 2008

Brother and Sister in the Atlantic Basin

Just wanted to update on Gustav and Hanna. Gustav is packing winds of near 70 mph which is very close to hurricane strength (74 mph or greater). He is moving very close to the shores of Jamaica. Hanna is north of the Leeward Islands and she is packing 50 mph winds. The potential track and strength of Gustav is troubling as he will likely strengthen rapidly once he moves away from Jamaica. He is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico and threaten the Gulf coast states. Lets hope it does not hit the main oil rig region but right now that looks possible that it will threaten that area. Please note in the images below, the track forecast of each storm after day 3 have very little skill and could easily change by hundreds of miles in later forecasts. Hanna is expected to meander near the Bahamas in the coming days and it appears she could also strengthen rapidly as well. Both storms do have the potential to become major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater) in the coming days. The NHC does mention this about Hanna even though it is not show on the track forecast.


Gustav 5-Day Projected Track



Hanna 5-Day Projected Track



Gustav middle and Hanna right(Infrared Satellite Image..Brighter colors mean strong convection and cold cloud tops)

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