Cristobal and Dolly. Mini heat wave upon us.

Tropical Storm Cristobal became official Saturday afternoon and has not been very impressive at all off the coast of NC. He will be moving off to the NE tomorrow and Tuesday, but will leave behind a west northwest flow that will usher in a dry atmosphere and a mini heat wave.

Tropical Storm Dolly became official this afternoon and is churning in the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea just west of Jamaica and is threatening the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico where Cozumel and Cancun are located. The official 5pm Advisory on Dolly has her at .. I have posted the 5 day track positions as well as a Satellite image of Dolly. Notice the wide expanse of cloud cover with Dolly, but the actual center of circulation is located towards the southwest part of the cloud shield. Also notice the 5-day track forecast has Dolly re-emerging over open waters in the Gulf of Mexico and strengthening to a category 1 hurricane.. Conditions appear favorable for strengthening as long as Dolly can survive the trip over land. If Dolly glances the Yucatan, she will have a much better chance of getting stronger as conditions are very favorable for strengthening in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. One thing that is noted by the National Hurricane Center is that final landfall is not certain so the point near the US/Mexico border could change in the next few days.






Now onto the mini heat wave.. Due to northwest flow around the departing Cristobal and sinking air that accompanies the passage of a tropical cyclone, it will be very hot Monday and Tuesday. Northwest flow has a downslope component which in turn drys out the air and compresses it which will warm the air also. We should see highs on Monday 96-98 and Tuesday 95-97. I lowered the range on Tuesday due to the potential for more cloud cover in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday. One thing that I think will save us from triple digit heat in the Triangle is the fact the ground is wetter since we had rain this weekend and have been above normal for the last 2 months. This should help to hold temperatures just under 100 while when the ground is drier it is easier to heat up quicker due to less evaporation. Some hot spots in central NC could still see a 100 degree reading though but I think Raleigh should just miss.