Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Extreme Heat To Return?

I am still not totally convinced that extreme heat will return late this weekend into next week. You may have heard from several radio and TV outlets that triple digit heat may make a return. Model predictions show a massive heat ridge somewhere over the eastern United States starting this weekend and then heading into next week. I am in no way saying that this will definitely not happen, but the exact location of this ridge and exactly where the surface high pressure ends up sitting will make all the difference. I posted about this last week how model guidance for temperature forecast have been higher than what is actually occurring. Today was no different with RDU reaching 92 and some guidance yesterday showing highs in the mid to upper 90s. The same holds true for Wednesday through Friday. I feel most guidance is slightly to warm.
Here is a look at extended range temperature statistical guidance from the GFS(global forecast system model) for RDU.

WED: 95
THURS: 94
FRI: 98
SAT: 97
SUN: 99
MON: 102
TUES: 100

As you can see, the heat is predicting to get extreme by next week. Will this happen? Its possible given the pattern that appears to be coming, but this model has also been several degrees above the actual observed readings.

For Wednesday, with higher moisture in the air I would expect that there would be a good amount of cumulus clouds with some of them becoming storms. This should help to keep temperatures from getting higher than 93. Thursday will be very similar with perhaps more showers and storms. Then from there, it all depends on how the ridge at the surface and aloft align themselves into the weekend. Stay tuned.

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