I posted on Tuesday about the potential for extreme heat the end of this weekend into next week. Well that looks like it is on hold until maybe Tuesday and Wednesday. The keyword here is maybe as again I am not confident in the model solutions and how high the temperatures are forecast to be in the coming days. Saturday will be no doubt be hot, but not as hot as the GFS (global model) says it will be (98). I predict a high of 95 (more in line with past two week trends and other guidance). That could be held down if there is more clouds and more showers and storms. Right now, it appears that another disturbance in the northwest flow aloft will come through during peak heating. Moisture should be on the rise again as currently the atmosphere is too dry to support precipitation. It is uncertain whether or not coverage will be isolated or more widespread.
Here are some statistics from the record breaking August 2007
90 degree days: 30
100+ degree days: 6 with 105 second hottest day recorded at RDU.
Precip: 0.91 inches ; normal August total: 3.78 inches
The big thing to note is 30 of the 31 days last August were above 90 with six of those being about 100. It was also extremely dry that month. Will we see another hot August? Luckily, we are heading into August with a bit more rainfall then we did last year heading into August, but the ground water is still low and could play a role in any hot spell that occurs including the one possible this coming week.
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