The weather system that caused the rain and cloud cover the past two days is finally clearing out and much drier air is on its way in. Thursday morning we should be seeing temperatures in the lower and middle 50s. Be careful if your driving early as there could be some dense patches of fog. During the day, sun will be the rule with highs barely reaching 80. The air will have a cool feel to it due to the lowering of the dewpoints.
For Friday, morning lows should again be in the lower to middle 50s. A backdoor cold front ( cold front from the north) will have passed through the state early friday morning. This should help to keep temperatures on Friday only in the lower 70s. Also, due to a persistant northeast flow off the Atlantic, partly sunny skies are possible helping to possibly keep the temperatures even lower.
For the weekend, expect much of the same. Lows in the lower to middle 50s each morning and highs in the middle 70s. There will be a developing low pressure area off the coast that could add some moisture on Sunday but right now precipitation should not occur. Any additional cloud cover could keep temperatures lower during the day. I also do not want to forget to mention that there is some indication that there will be light flow from the SW in the middle levels of the atmosphere which could also add moisture for cloud development.
Outlook for next week: Continued seasonable with temperatures near normal...or in the upper 70s to around 80 with lows in the middle to upper 50s. The pattern we are seeing now seems to persist well into next week with a reinforcing high to our north that will keep a cool, dry flow into our region! It appears like fall has arrived!!
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
What Drought?
You probably noticed how much rain we have gotten the last several weeks, and even months. Here is a look at some precipitation statistics at RDU
Current September 2008 Precip: 7.76 inches (Including Today's 1.38 inches ; 5.45 above the normal month to date of 2.31 inches)
August 2008 Precip: 5.92 inches (Normal August Precip: 3.78 inches)
July 2008 Precip: 5.96 inches (Normal July Precip: 4.29 inches)
June 2008 Precip: 4.08 inches (Normal June Precip 3.42 inches)
We have gotten 23.72 inches of rain in the last three and a half months with the normal for the same period being 13.8 inches meaning we have gotten 9.92 inches of surplus rainfall.. in just the last 3.5 months. So how does our year to date rainfall stand?
Since January 1, 2008, RDU has received 40.71 inches. The normal value is 31.91 inches meaning we are 8.80 inches above the norm. Also if u notice, the year to date total was 40.71 inches and we received 23.72 inches of the total 40.71 inches in the last three and a half months. IMPRESSIVE!!
I am sure everyone knows 2007 was a dry year! Well get this.. Last year at this time since January 1, 2007, RDU only got 25.91 inches of rain meaning we were 6 inches below normal. BUT, the big thing to me is how again in the last three and a half months we have gotten 23.72 inches of rain.. almost the same amount of rain we received last year from January 1 through September 16.
Lets dive a little deeper. 2007 ended with 35.81 inches of rain, the normal value being 43.05 inches. Interesting how we already have received 4.9 inches more than we received all last year and there is still three and a half months left in the year. We ended the year 7.24 inches below normal.. so how much of the deficit have we really made up? Again, we have received 40.71 inches so far this year and 35.81 inches all last year. The normal yearly rain is 43.05 and the normal to date from Jan 1 to now is 31.91 inches totaling 74.96 inches. Our actual from January 1 to now is 76.52 inches. So in fact we have made up the last years deficit if my calculation is correct. We are 1.56 inches above the normal rainfall since January 1, 2007. Hopefully we will be able to get at least normal rainfall now until the end of the year so we can keep the surplus we have and not fall into another serious drought.
Here is a look at the last 3 weeks. We had the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay effect the area on August 26- 28. We received 3.71 inches of rain during this event. Then August 30-31, several rounds of thunderstorms effected the area totaling 0.96 inches of rain. Next came the big event, Tropical Storm Hanna, September 5-6, receiving 5.19 inches of rain. Finally, two widespread rainfall events, one on September 10 and one today, September 16, dumped a total of 2.57 inches of rain. SINCE AUGUST 26, RDU HAS RECEIVED 12.43 INCHES OF RAIN!
There is no doubt in my mind we are making up the deficit that we built last year. Last weeks drought monitor shows the decay of the drought region across south central NC, but the drought lingers across western NC and even northern and northeastern NC as shown below. The reason why the drought across our area is not completely gone is because of the water table. Precipitation amounts are only half of the puzzle. The water table was severely hurt last year and its still catching up.
The new drought monitor will come out Thursday morning and I will post it here. It will be interesting to see what changes as it will include the rainfall event that occurred on Wednesday, September 10. It will not include today's rain since the cutoff for their data analysis is 7am every Tuesday and most of the rain occurred from 11am to 4pm.
Current September 2008 Precip: 7.76 inches (Including Today's 1.38 inches ; 5.45 above the normal month to date of 2.31 inches)
August 2008 Precip: 5.92 inches (Normal August Precip: 3.78 inches)
July 2008 Precip: 5.96 inches (Normal July Precip: 4.29 inches)
June 2008 Precip: 4.08 inches (Normal June Precip 3.42 inches)
We have gotten 23.72 inches of rain in the last three and a half months with the normal for the same period being 13.8 inches meaning we have gotten 9.92 inches of surplus rainfall.. in just the last 3.5 months. So how does our year to date rainfall stand?
Since January 1, 2008, RDU has received 40.71 inches. The normal value is 31.91 inches meaning we are 8.80 inches above the norm. Also if u notice, the year to date total was 40.71 inches and we received 23.72 inches of the total 40.71 inches in the last three and a half months. IMPRESSIVE!!
I am sure everyone knows 2007 was a dry year! Well get this.. Last year at this time since January 1, 2007, RDU only got 25.91 inches of rain meaning we were 6 inches below normal. BUT, the big thing to me is how again in the last three and a half months we have gotten 23.72 inches of rain.. almost the same amount of rain we received last year from January 1 through September 16.
Lets dive a little deeper. 2007 ended with 35.81 inches of rain, the normal value being 43.05 inches. Interesting how we already have received 4.9 inches more than we received all last year and there is still three and a half months left in the year. We ended the year 7.24 inches below normal.. so how much of the deficit have we really made up? Again, we have received 40.71 inches so far this year and 35.81 inches all last year. The normal yearly rain is 43.05 and the normal to date from Jan 1 to now is 31.91 inches totaling 74.96 inches. Our actual from January 1 to now is 76.52 inches. So in fact we have made up the last years deficit if my calculation is correct. We are 1.56 inches above the normal rainfall since January 1, 2007. Hopefully we will be able to get at least normal rainfall now until the end of the year so we can keep the surplus we have and not fall into another serious drought.
Here is a look at the last 3 weeks. We had the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay effect the area on August 26- 28. We received 3.71 inches of rain during this event. Then August 30-31, several rounds of thunderstorms effected the area totaling 0.96 inches of rain. Next came the big event, Tropical Storm Hanna, September 5-6, receiving 5.19 inches of rain. Finally, two widespread rainfall events, one on September 10 and one today, September 16, dumped a total of 2.57 inches of rain. SINCE AUGUST 26, RDU HAS RECEIVED 12.43 INCHES OF RAIN!
There is no doubt in my mind we are making up the deficit that we built last year. Last weeks drought monitor shows the decay of the drought region across south central NC, but the drought lingers across western NC and even northern and northeastern NC as shown below. The reason why the drought across our area is not completely gone is because of the water table. Precipitation amounts are only half of the puzzle. The water table was severely hurt last year and its still catching up.
The new drought monitor will come out Thursday morning and I will post it here. It will be interesting to see what changes as it will include the rainfall event that occurred on Wednesday, September 10. It will not include today's rain since the cutoff for their data analysis is 7am every Tuesday and most of the rain occurred from 11am to 4pm.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Heat Leaving Fast
There is no real indication that I can see that shows that we will not have another spell of some heat before we head into October, but it is looking less and less likely. Monday will be a transition day for us here in NC. A cold front that picked up Ike yesterday and raced him into the Great Lakes and now Canada is west of the Appalachian mountains currently. Behind this front is a cool fall-like surface high pressure. Under this high, temperatures are ranging from the 50s to the lower 70s. This air will not fully get here thanks to the strong upper level ridge sitting off the east coast. The ridge will actually slow the upper level pattern down somewhat meaning there will still be plenty of moisture advecting into the region from southwesterly flow aloft. A trough will be setting up just west of the mountains due to this trough, areas of rising motion will be moving in overhead. At the surface, cool, moist northeasterly flow off the Atlantic from the cool Canadian High will help bring in a fall like overrunning event with low clouds and areas of light rain and drizzle Tuesday - Wednesday. It will be somewhat similar to last weeks overcast regime, but the air will certainly be cooler and you will notice it.
In summary:
Monday will be a transition day with the cold front coming across the state. The cold front will be lying somewhere from the eastern Piedmont to the Coastal Plain tomorrow afternoon. Rain should be hard to come by with this passage, but cloud cover should prevent temperatures from getting into the 90s like they did this weekend. In fact, new data out tonight suggests the temperatures may not get above 85. The cooler air will begin to arrive towards evening with temperatures dropping into the 70s with dew points lowering into the low 60s possibly upper 50s.
By Tuesday morning, rain, mainly light should be across the area with temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. These temperatures may in fact not budge throughout the day if rain is more widespread.
By Wednesday morning, chances of light rain continue. Low overcast or fog could also be present. If clouds to break up slightly before sunrise temperatures could drop into the upper 50s.
Rest of the week: The trough should begin to lift out allowing for drier air to move in aloft. The question remains how much quickly does the lower level moisture leave the area. There are many cases where models erode the low cloud deck to quick. Since this is 3 days away, specifics will have to wait until we get closer but cooler temperatures during the day and night can be expected through Friday even if there is some sun as the airmass across much of the nation will be cooler.
Some climate information:
RDU normal high and low for Monday: 82, 62
RDU normal high and low for Tuesday - Thursday: 81, 60
RDU normal high and low for Friday: 81, 60
The point I am trying to make above is the next week should have average temperatures close to normal if not below and also shows that very hot weather will become less and less likely other than the typical anomaly that will always occur due to temporary changes in the jet stream.
I am taking the GRE in two weeks so my posting has been rather lack luster lately. I will try to keep updating take myself sane as I will be studying a lot more over the coming weeks.
In summary:
Monday will be a transition day with the cold front coming across the state. The cold front will be lying somewhere from the eastern Piedmont to the Coastal Plain tomorrow afternoon. Rain should be hard to come by with this passage, but cloud cover should prevent temperatures from getting into the 90s like they did this weekend. In fact, new data out tonight suggests the temperatures may not get above 85. The cooler air will begin to arrive towards evening with temperatures dropping into the 70s with dew points lowering into the low 60s possibly upper 50s.
By Tuesday morning, rain, mainly light should be across the area with temperatures in the lower to middle 60s. These temperatures may in fact not budge throughout the day if rain is more widespread.
By Wednesday morning, chances of light rain continue. Low overcast or fog could also be present. If clouds to break up slightly before sunrise temperatures could drop into the upper 50s.
Rest of the week: The trough should begin to lift out allowing for drier air to move in aloft. The question remains how much quickly does the lower level moisture leave the area. There are many cases where models erode the low cloud deck to quick. Since this is 3 days away, specifics will have to wait until we get closer but cooler temperatures during the day and night can be expected through Friday even if there is some sun as the airmass across much of the nation will be cooler.
Some climate information:
RDU normal high and low for Monday: 82, 62
RDU normal high and low for Tuesday - Thursday: 81, 60
RDU normal high and low for Friday: 81, 60
The point I am trying to make above is the next week should have average temperatures close to normal if not below and also shows that very hot weather will become less and less likely other than the typical anomaly that will always occur due to temporary changes in the jet stream.
I am taking the GRE in two weeks so my posting has been rather lack luster lately. I will try to keep updating take myself sane as I will be studying a lot more over the coming weeks.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Ike Landfall Iminent
Here is a radar image of Category 2 Hurricane Ike close to landfall. Official landfall does not occur until the actual center of the eye makes heads over land. IKE IS A BEAST. Just look at the size of the radar echoes..
Monday, September 8, 2008
Wrapping up Hanna; Ike Update
Hanna was really nothing more than a big rain event for most, but along the coast winds were definitely observed stronger as shown below.
Just to reiterate the point that Hanna was a big rain producer for NC.. here is an observed precipitation map for the event.
This is very surprising in that the right quadrant of the storm actually contained less rain then did the left. The eye passed up the I-95 corridor. Hanna was thoroughly disrupted in the Bahamas due to strong shear. She never really regained organization true to what a hurricane would be so apart of me feels she continued to struggle even just before landfall when some signs of organization were found from recon aircraft. The west side of the storm typically has weaker winds and that was definitely what occurred with Hanna. After landfall, whatever core there was collapsed fairly rapidly and the winds weakened.
Ike is now becoming a concern to the western Gulf Coast of the United States specifically for Texas. Below are some of the more sophisticated tropical models and their tracks that were recently just run with data current as of 8pm.
One must not focus on the specific lines, but focus on the consensus of where they are tracking Ike...somewhere into Texas or northwest Louisiana. Intensity will also remain a concern as most models show an environment in the Gulf of Mexico that will be conducive to strengthening regardless of how what condition he is in once he emerges in the Gulf. Take the 8 am model run of the European Global Model. It has an extremely intense storm crashing into the Gulf Coast of Texas near or south of Houston. Note that global models often have trouble with tropical cyclones and usually miss how low the pressure is by a large margin. Interesting times are ahead yet again, but the good news is that the rest of the Tropical Atlantic is quiet and it may stay that way for quite some time.
8am European Global Model Valid 8am Saturday 9/13/08
Just to reiterate the point that Hanna was a big rain producer for NC.. here is an observed precipitation map for the event.
This is very surprising in that the right quadrant of the storm actually contained less rain then did the left. The eye passed up the I-95 corridor. Hanna was thoroughly disrupted in the Bahamas due to strong shear. She never really regained organization true to what a hurricane would be so apart of me feels she continued to struggle even just before landfall when some signs of organization were found from recon aircraft. The west side of the storm typically has weaker winds and that was definitely what occurred with Hanna. After landfall, whatever core there was collapsed fairly rapidly and the winds weakened.
Ike is now becoming a concern to the western Gulf Coast of the United States specifically for Texas. Below are some of the more sophisticated tropical models and their tracks that were recently just run with data current as of 8pm.
One must not focus on the specific lines, but focus on the consensus of where they are tracking Ike...somewhere into Texas or northwest Louisiana. Intensity will also remain a concern as most models show an environment in the Gulf of Mexico that will be conducive to strengthening regardless of how what condition he is in once he emerges in the Gulf. Take the 8 am model run of the European Global Model. It has an extremely intense storm crashing into the Gulf Coast of Texas near or south of Houston. Note that global models often have trouble with tropical cyclones and usually miss how low the pressure is by a large margin. Interesting times are ahead yet again, but the good news is that the rest of the Tropical Atlantic is quiet and it may stay that way for quite some time.
8am European Global Model Valid 8am Saturday 9/13/08
Sunday, September 7, 2008
Hanna Rainfall...and Ike a Category 4
Rainfall was the big story with Hanna. Winds were not terrible at all here in the Raleigh area 15-25 sustained at times with gusts to 35 ..maybe 45 mph in spots, but the rain was impressive. If you were out driving around the Raleigh area after midnight you will know what I mean. Some of the heaviest rain I have ever driven in... Flooding was the big story with Hanna and not the winds. The good thing is we definitely need the rain since we are still having moderate to severe drought issues across the state. Tomorrow if I have time I will try to do an analysis of what happened with Hanna including why we got the heaviest rain here on the west side of the eye path and why the winds were relatively weak here but for now the image below is from the National Weather Service in Raleigh showing rainfall estimates across the area from Doppler Radar.
Here is an update on Ike... He is a dangerous category 4 hurricane for the second time in his lifetime. He is headed to the Bahamas and will affect them overnight. Cuba is next in his sights. The big question remains whether or not he will spend several hours over Cuba or will he stay over water longer. Of course if he is over Cuba for an extended period of time he will of course weaken considerably so we do not know how strong he will be when he emerges in the Gulf of Mexico. Yes we have another storm that is possibly going to be in the Gulf later this week. For now check out an impressive infrared satellite image taken at 12:01 am. Incredible eye feature that is very large. You can see there is an area that still has cold clouds in it but it would appear that its trying to clear that out. Ike may in fact be slightly stronger than the 135 mph the NHC has him at currently.
Here is an update on Ike... He is a dangerous category 4 hurricane for the second time in his lifetime. He is headed to the Bahamas and will affect them overnight. Cuba is next in his sights. The big question remains whether or not he will spend several hours over Cuba or will he stay over water longer. Of course if he is over Cuba for an extended period of time he will of course weaken considerably so we do not know how strong he will be when he emerges in the Gulf of Mexico. Yes we have another storm that is possibly going to be in the Gulf later this week. For now check out an impressive infrared satellite image taken at 12:01 am. Incredible eye feature that is very large. You can see there is an area that still has cold clouds in it but it would appear that its trying to clear that out. Ike may in fact be slightly stronger than the 135 mph the NHC has him at currently.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Hanna, Ike, and Josephine
The focus of this post is to update the status on Hanna due to its threat to the United States. In passing just want to mention Tropical Storm Ike is getting better organized and is moving rapidly westward across the Atlantic Ocean. He is expected to be a hurricane as early as tomorrow and could approach category 3 status by the weekend. Right now the consensus is for him to hit the Bahamas. From there it could hit Cuba, Florida, the SE US, or even the Gulf States if it were to travel through the Florida Straits.
Now onto Hanna....
She is definitely in a hostile environment right now with strong northwesterly shear tearing apart any convection that tries to form. This is shown below by all the colder cloud tops being shunted to the east. The National Hurricane Center notes this is expected to change soon with shear relaxing and upper environmental conditions should become more favorable for better organization and could regain hurricane status Wednesday night or Thursday. Hanna has plenty of warm water including the Gulf Stream to go over so how strong she gets if she gets to hurricane status is still up in the air.
Today she has been drifting around north of Haiti. Air Force Reconnaissance found that the center of circulation was drifting east at times. It could be possible that the center is completing a loop as a NW motion is expected to begin on Wednesday. A new Air Force Reconnaissance plane will be in Hanna after 1 am so we should know more then but of course I will be sleeping.
Computer model forecasts have a general idea of hitting the SE US somewhere from Jacksonville, Florida to Wilmington, North Carolina. It should be noted that any slight deviation in track could make a huge difference in its landfall location. From there she is expected to race NNW or N through the Carolina's and up into the NE by Saturday Night.
11 pm September 2 NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. (NOTE DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO THE EXACT POINT BUT THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY)
Infrared Satellite Image Taken at 10:45 PM
Now onto Hanna....
She is definitely in a hostile environment right now with strong northwesterly shear tearing apart any convection that tries to form. This is shown below by all the colder cloud tops being shunted to the east. The National Hurricane Center notes this is expected to change soon with shear relaxing and upper environmental conditions should become more favorable for better organization and could regain hurricane status Wednesday night or Thursday. Hanna has plenty of warm water including the Gulf Stream to go over so how strong she gets if she gets to hurricane status is still up in the air.
Today she has been drifting around north of Haiti. Air Force Reconnaissance found that the center of circulation was drifting east at times. It could be possible that the center is completing a loop as a NW motion is expected to begin on Wednesday. A new Air Force Reconnaissance plane will be in Hanna after 1 am so we should know more then but of course I will be sleeping.
Computer model forecasts have a general idea of hitting the SE US somewhere from Jacksonville, Florida to Wilmington, North Carolina. It should be noted that any slight deviation in track could make a huge difference in its landfall location. From there she is expected to race NNW or N through the Carolina's and up into the NE by Saturday Night.
11 pm September 2 NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. (NOTE DO NOT PAY ATTENTION TO THE EXACT POINT BUT THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY)
Infrared Satellite Image Taken at 10:45 PM
Monday, September 1, 2008
Gustav, Hanna, and Ike
The 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season is about as active as it gets in my opinion. We have Gustav over land with still hurricane force wind gusts, but now it has weakened to a Tropical Storm. lashing areas of Louisiana. New Orleans appeared to have gotten through this better than Katrina but by no means am I saying it was a dud. Gustav made landfall as a strong category 2 hurricane with winds at 110 mph.
Now onto the next tropical cyclone to possibly effect the U.S. Earlier this morning, Tropical Storm Hanna was not very organized and was not expected to become a hurricane until Wednesday. She got much better organized despite being in an environment not conducive for strengthening. Hurricane Hunters flew in and found a much stronger Hanna and she was designated a hurricane at 1:30 pm. Hanna has since stalled in the Bahamas and is expected to meander for the next day or so as the steering environment is weak. As of 11pm, Hanna has 80 mph winds and a minimum central pressure of 978mb. One of the issues Hanna has been facing is northerly shear which tends to blow off most of the clouds and convection to the south and prevents the storm from really venting itself the way a strong hurricane can. The National Hurricane Center says this shear should relax as an upper level anticyclone will move overhead. This should help to help outflow in all quadrants which acts as exhaust. I am not going to get into specifics with the exact track right now because no discernible movement is being made by Hanna. I will just say this.. Anyone from Flordia to the North Carolina coast could see this landfall there. Because of the way the east coast is shaped, any 20-50 mile deviation could affect the landfall point. Below is the New 11pm 5-day track and intensity from The National Hurricane Center shown on Wunderground color maps.
More on Hanna tomorrow evening.
Quickly onto Tropical Storm Ike which was designated this afternoon at 5pm. Not much to say here except this is another tropical cyclone that needs to be watched closely. Here is the new 11pm 5-day track again from the National Hurricane Center on Wunderground maps.
And for your viewing enjoyment, you can see Tropical Storm Gustav over the Gulf States, Hurricane Hanna over the Bahamas and Tropical Storm Ike over the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.
Now onto the next tropical cyclone to possibly effect the U.S. Earlier this morning, Tropical Storm Hanna was not very organized and was not expected to become a hurricane until Wednesday. She got much better organized despite being in an environment not conducive for strengthening. Hurricane Hunters flew in and found a much stronger Hanna and she was designated a hurricane at 1:30 pm. Hanna has since stalled in the Bahamas and is expected to meander for the next day or so as the steering environment is weak. As of 11pm, Hanna has 80 mph winds and a minimum central pressure of 978mb. One of the issues Hanna has been facing is northerly shear which tends to blow off most of the clouds and convection to the south and prevents the storm from really venting itself the way a strong hurricane can. The National Hurricane Center says this shear should relax as an upper level anticyclone will move overhead. This should help to help outflow in all quadrants which acts as exhaust. I am not going to get into specifics with the exact track right now because no discernible movement is being made by Hanna. I will just say this.. Anyone from Flordia to the North Carolina coast could see this landfall there. Because of the way the east coast is shaped, any 20-50 mile deviation could affect the landfall point. Below is the New 11pm 5-day track and intensity from The National Hurricane Center shown on Wunderground color maps.
More on Hanna tomorrow evening.
Quickly onto Tropical Storm Ike which was designated this afternoon at 5pm. Not much to say here except this is another tropical cyclone that needs to be watched closely. Here is the new 11pm 5-day track again from the National Hurricane Center on Wunderground maps.
And for your viewing enjoyment, you can see Tropical Storm Gustav over the Gulf States, Hurricane Hanna over the Bahamas and Tropical Storm Ike over the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Gustav Weakening Slightly.. Reintensification Likely
Gustav has weakening slightly as he interacted with Cuba Saturday Night. Max winds are 135 mph and the pressure is up to 958 mb but is still a category 4. Latest satellite imagery show the eye has been covered by clouds and the eyewall appears to have weakened. I also think an eye wall replacement cycle has occured and this might be why it looks a little ragged. Cloud tops are still extremely cold so i feel strengthening is inevitable. All indications point to Gustav regaining strength during his treck over the warm gulf waters and the loop current. Its anyones guess if he becomes a 5 or stays a 4, but as was seen on Saturday anything is possible.
Saturday, August 30, 2008
August 30, 2008 5PM GUSTAV ADVISORY
Latest Info as 5pm on Gustav:
MAX WINDS: 150 mph... 6 away from being a category 5
Pressure: 942 mb
The Hurricane Center feels that Gustav could become a category 5 hurricane tonight with a landfall in the US as a category 4 hurricane. I will have more later tonight and tomorrow as I will not be able to post this evening. One thing I will say is hopefully Gustav will be peaking early and start to level off and come back down to a lower major hurricane status before landfall. Storm surge will be a big issue for Louisiana and if it makes landfall west of New Orleans, they may have to contend with 20-30ft storm surge...
UNBELIEVABLE IMAGE.. taken about 4:10pm
and at 5:01 pm.. Gustav is a monster!!!
MAX WINDS: 150 mph... 6 away from being a category 5
Pressure: 942 mb
The Hurricane Center feels that Gustav could become a category 5 hurricane tonight with a landfall in the US as a category 4 hurricane. I will have more later tonight and tomorrow as I will not be able to post this evening. One thing I will say is hopefully Gustav will be peaking early and start to level off and come back down to a lower major hurricane status before landfall. Storm surge will be a big issue for Louisiana and if it makes landfall west of New Orleans, they may have to contend with 20-30ft storm surge...
UNBELIEVABLE IMAGE.. taken about 4:10pm
and at 5:01 pm.. Gustav is a monster!!!
Gustav Now A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
Air Force Reconnaissance recently reported a much more intense Gustav.. with max winds near 145 mph and a pressure of 935 mb. Lets put this in perspective here.. Last night at 11pm.. he had a pressure of 974 mb, 5am today a pressure of 965 mb and 11am a pressure of 954 mb. He is now at 945 mb.. a rapidly deepening hurricane. Scary images below...
WOW!
UPDATE: 2:20pm
The National Hurricane Center now feels it is definitely possible that Gustav becomes a category 5 hurricane before it hits Cuba. It only needs 11 more mph added to wind speed for this to occur. They are still flying into the storm and I will be able to update until about 6 pm tonight.. thereafter.. I will not be able to update until at the earliest midnight Sunday when Gustav will be emerging into the southern Gulf. Here is an updated forecast track with new intensity updated. Note the category 4 point right before landfall with New Orleans to its right..
UPDATE: 3:17 PM
New satellite images show Gustav glancing the Isle of Youth.
Visible image as of 3:02pm
Infrared image as of 3:02pm
WOW!
UPDATE: 2:20pm
The National Hurricane Center now feels it is definitely possible that Gustav becomes a category 5 hurricane before it hits Cuba. It only needs 11 more mph added to wind speed for this to occur. They are still flying into the storm and I will be able to update until about 6 pm tonight.. thereafter.. I will not be able to update until at the earliest midnight Sunday when Gustav will be emerging into the southern Gulf. Here is an updated forecast track with new intensity updated. Note the category 4 point right before landfall with New Orleans to its right..
UPDATE: 3:17 PM
New satellite images show Gustav glancing the Isle of Youth.
Visible image as of 3:02pm
Infrared image as of 3:02pm
Gustav a Major Category 3 Hurricane
Gustav is now a major Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds! His pressure was reported earlier this morning by the Hurricane Hunters to be 954 mb. A new plane surveying the storm right now so we should have a good idea if Gustav continues to strengthen or level off. Forecast track has not changed much and it is still possible Gustav becomes a major category 4 hurricane in the south Gulf Of Mexico on Sunday. .. he could even be a 4 before making landfall in Cuba.. Breathtaking images below.. yet quite scary.
Visible Image @ 12:45pm
Infrared Image @ 12:45pm (Bright colors indicate deep cold cloud tops)
Visible Image @ 12:45pm
Infrared Image @ 12:45pm (Bright colors indicate deep cold cloud tops)
Gustav a Category 2 Hurricane
Gustav became a hurricane again early Friday afternoon. He is now a category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds.. Here is the latest statement from the National Hurricane Center..
HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
210 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 100
MPH...155 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
He appears to be continuing to intensify as of this post and is now only 10 mph in wind speed away from being a major category 3 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson scale. This may very well be the case when we all wake up in the morning. Gustav is still expected to make a landfall on the western tip of Cuba. This landmass may serve to temporary halt intensification or even weaken him, but once over the Southern Gulf, Gustav has a chance at becoming a category 4 hurricane (131-155 mph). The consensus is then for Gustav to move NW towards the central Gulf Coast west of New Orleans making landfall possibly as a category 3. The reason for the possible weakening is cooler waters in the northern Gulf Of Mexico. One needs to note that hurricanes go through cycles that can serve to weaken them even though conditions are ripe for intensification. These cannot be predicted! For now here is a satellite image of Gustav.. the eye is hard to pick out but Hurricane Hunters have found a 30nm closed eyewall. More on Gustav and tropical storm hanna later today/
HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
210 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 100
MPH...155 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
He appears to be continuing to intensify as of this post and is now only 10 mph in wind speed away from being a major category 3 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson scale. This may very well be the case when we all wake up in the morning. Gustav is still expected to make a landfall on the western tip of Cuba. This landmass may serve to temporary halt intensification or even weaken him, but once over the Southern Gulf, Gustav has a chance at becoming a category 4 hurricane (131-155 mph). The consensus is then for Gustav to move NW towards the central Gulf Coast west of New Orleans making landfall possibly as a category 3. The reason for the possible weakening is cooler waters in the northern Gulf Of Mexico. One needs to note that hurricanes go through cycles that can serve to weaken them even though conditions are ripe for intensification. These cannot be predicted! For now here is a satellite image of Gustav.. the eye is hard to pick out but Hurricane Hunters have found a 30nm closed eyewall. More on Gustav and tropical storm hanna later today/
Friday, August 29, 2008
Brother and Sister in the Atlantic Basin
Just wanted to update on Gustav and Hanna. Gustav is packing winds of near 70 mph which is very close to hurricane strength (74 mph or greater). He is moving very close to the shores of Jamaica. Hanna is north of the Leeward Islands and she is packing 50 mph winds. The potential track and strength of Gustav is troubling as he will likely strengthen rapidly once he moves away from Jamaica. He is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico and threaten the Gulf coast states. Lets hope it does not hit the main oil rig region but right now that looks possible that it will threaten that area. Please note in the images below, the track forecast of each storm after day 3 have very little skill and could easily change by hundreds of miles in later forecasts. Hanna is expected to meander near the Bahamas in the coming days and it appears she could also strengthen rapidly as well. Both storms do have the potential to become major hurricanes (Category 3 or greater) in the coming days. The NHC does mention this about Hanna even though it is not show on the track forecast.
Gustav 5-Day Projected Track
Hanna 5-Day Projected Track
Gustav middle and Hanna right(Infrared Satellite Image..Brighter colors mean strong convection and cold cloud tops)
Gustav 5-Day Projected Track
Hanna 5-Day Projected Track
Gustav middle and Hanna right(Infrared Satellite Image..Brighter colors mean strong convection and cold cloud tops)
Thursday, August 28, 2008
August 26-28, 2008 Remnant Fay Analysis & Summary
The focus of this analysis is with what happened across North Carolina...
Beginning during the early morning hours on Tuesday, August 26 rain began to overspread western North Carolina from the southwest from the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay with only light rain and drizzle across central NC. The reason why the heaviest precipitation was focused in the western part of the state was because of an upslope component to the wind. By this I mean the wind was blowing up the higher terrain as the wind was blowing from the SE to NW. This aids in lifting necessary to get precipitation. Combine this process with abundant tropical moisture and the remnant circulation from Fay, you get very very heavy rainfall.
The heavy rains continued to affect the mountains, foothills, western Piedmont and southwest sandhills of NC. Drizzle and light rain continued across the Triangle. The large area of heavy rains finally began to shift NE through the early morning hours on Wednesday, August 27 with some of this rain getting as far east as Johnston county. By 7am, a trailing squall line of heavy rain and thunderstorms was crawling across eastward across the state. The line had rainfall rates of 2-4 inches an hour in spots. It finally reached the Triangle with 1.57 inches of rain falling in one hour at RDU.
Tornadoes then became a major threat as there were several boundaries draped across the state. Whenever a remnant circulation from a tropical storm exists, isolated tornadoes are a possibility. There was also a good amount of wind shear as well as a parameter called helicity which takes into account the wind shear and the possibility of a storm to ingest horizontal spin into its updraft. Wind shear is the change of wind with height. We had southeasterly winds at the surface and southwesterly winds in the middle and upper levels. There was also a increase in the speed of these winds as you go up. Due to the copius amounts of moisture, getting a quick tornado to spin up and touch down was certainly possible. Tornadoes are much more likely to occur when saturation of the air is occurring very low to the surface of the earth. Even if all the parameters necessary for tornadoes exist, if the low level air is dry a tornado may not be as much of a threat.
Below are the damage survey results from the tornadoes that touched down. If you were listening to the news, radio, or are a weather hobbyist you know the Raleigh National Weather Service had issued many warnings in the afternoon.
RANDOLPH COUNTY TORNADO NEAR RANDLEMAN...
TORNADO: EF-0
PEAK WIND: 60 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 500 YARDS
PATH WIDTH: 50 YARDS
TIME/DATE: 1230 PM WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 27, 2008
INJURIES: NONE NONE
FATALITIES: NONE
CHATHAM COUNTY TORNADO NEAR SILK HOPE...
TORNADO: EF-0
PEAK WIND: 75 MPH
PATH LENGTH: ONE AND A HALF MILE
PATH WIDTH: 100 YARDS
TIME/DATE: 415 PM WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 27, 2008
INJURIES: NONE NONE
FATALITIES: NONE
WAYNE AND WILSON COUNTY TORNADO SURVEY...
FIRST TOUCHDOWN AT AYCOCK CHURCH ROAD
TORNADO: EF-0
PEAK WIND: 75 MPH
PATH LENGTH: ONE HALF MILE
PATH WIDTH: 50 YARDS
TIME/DATE: 1258 AM THURSDAY, AUGUST 28, 2008
INJURIES: NONE NONE
FATALITIES: NONE
SECOND TOUCHDOWN AT BEAVER DAM ROAD
TORNADO: EF-0
PEAK WIND: 65 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 150 YARDS
PATH WIDTH: 25-50
TIME/DATE: 102 AM THURSDAY, AUGUST 28, 2008
INJURIES: NONE NONE
FATALITIES: NONE
Now back to the heavy rainfall..
Heavy rain and thunderstorm bands continued through the night across central and eastern NC. Wake county got in on torrential rains and embedded lightning from around 10 through 2am. Here are some totals from around the region reported by the NWS. Note: I had to change the RDU report as I believe they made an error. I also highlighted some notable amounts including one in Greensboro with 10.99" and added Charlotte to the list also as they were not in the report sent out by the Raleigh office. The report totals go from 8am Tuesday the 26th to 8am Thursday the 28th.
LOCATION 48-HR RAINFALL TOTAL
----------------------------------------------------
...ALAMANCE COUNTY...
HAW RIVER 7.23"
GRAHAM 6.58"
BURLINGTON 0.8SE 4.70"
BURLINGTON AIRPORT 4.69"
...CHATHAM COUNTY...
PITTSBORO 6.5W 8.07"
PITTSBORO 5.4NW 7.81"
CHATHAM WATER TREATMENT PLANT 4.83"
SILER CITY 5.5ENE 4.58"
GOLDSTON 4N 3.91"
...CUMBERLAND COUNTY...
FAYETTEVILLE AIRPORT 3.36"
FORT BRAGG 3.26"
FAYETTEVILLE 3.00"
...DAVIDSON COUNTY...
LEXINGTON 4.70"
WINSTON SALEM 7.7S 3.47"
...DURHAM COUNTY...
DURHAM 9.5N 6.32"
DURHAM 7.4 NNW 5.20"
DURHAM 5.15"
DURHAM 1.2NW 3.42"
DURHAM 6.2S 2.96"
...EDGECOMBE COUNTY...
TARBORO 0.50"
...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
YOUNGSVILLE 1.2E 2.62"
YOUNGSVILLE 4.1SE 1.80"
LOUISBURG 8.2ESE 1.53"
LOUISBURG 1.05"
...FORSYTH COUNTY...
LEWISVILLE 4.2N 6.73
RURAL HALL 4.22"
PFAFFTOWN 3.24"
WINSTON-SALEM 0.6S 3.22
SMITH-REYNOLDS AIRPORT 3.15"
...GUILFORD COUNTY...
GREENSBORO 6.5SSE 10.99"
GREENSBORO 1SE 6.74"
PTI AIRPORT 5.79"
BROWNS SUMMIT 3NW 5.29"
GREENSBORO 5.07"
OAK RIDGE 2.3SSW 4.30"
...HALIFAX COUNTY...
ROANOKE RAPIDS 0.73"
HALIFAX CO AIRPORT 0.57"
SCOTLAND NECK 0.26"
...HARNETT COUNTY...
ERWIN-DUNN 3.12"
COATS 0.7W 1.69"
...HOKE COUNTY...
RAEFORD 2.59"
...JOHNSTON COUNTY...
SMITHFIELD 2.8SE 2.09"
CLAYTON 2.1W 2.07"
SMITHFIELD 1.98"
KENLY 6.6NW 1.27"
CLAYTON 5.8S 1.23"
CLAYTON 0.71"
...MECKLENBURG COUNTY...
CHARLOTTE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 8.54"
...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
JACKSON SPRINGS 2.65"
TILLERY DAM 2.48"
...NASH COUNTY...
NASHVILLE 3.2W 1.19"
ROCKY MOUNT-WILSON AIRPORT 0.63"
...ORANGE COUNTY...
CHAPEL HILL 5.32"
CHAPEL HILL AIRPORT 5.02"
HILLSBOROUGH 7.4NW 4.88"
HILLSBOROUGH 4.9SW 4.02"
MEBANE 7.4SSE 2.99"
...RANDOLPH COUNTY...
RANDLEMAN 7.24"
ASHEBORO 1.2SW 4.91"
ASHEBORO 2.2SSE 4.58"
ARCHDALE 1.3SE 6.72"
...RICHMOND COUNTY...
BLEWETT 1.25"
...SAMPSON COUNTY...
CLINTON 1.16"
...SCOTLAND COUNTY...
LAURINBURG-MAXTON AIRPORT 1.58"
LAURINBURG 0.99"
...STANLY COUNTY...
STANFIELD 4.42"
ALBEMARLE 3.60"
...VANCE COUNTY...
HENDERSON NNE 3.09"
...WAKE COUNTY...
WAKE FOREST 4.6SW 4.45"
WILLOW SPRINGS 4.5SE 3.94"
RALEIGH 10.3N 3.90"
HOLLY SPRINGS 3.76"
APEX 6.1ESE 3.72"
RALEIGH-DURHAM AIRPORT 3.65"
RALEIGH 8.4N 3.43"
HOLLY SPRINGS 1.8ESE 3.35"
HOLLY SPRINGS 2ESE 3.33"
HOLLY SPRINGS 3.6SSE 3.24"
HOLLY SPRINGS 1.1ESE 3.16"
RALEIGH 1.5WNW 2.75"
GARNER 3W 2.65"
CARY 0.4NNW 2.53"
CARY 2.48"
CARY 2.6ESE 2.47"
APEX 2.47"
APEX 3.5W 2.29"
KNIGHTDALE 1.9WSW 2.19"
...WARREN COUNTY...
ARCOLA 1.44"
...WILSON COUNTY...
WILSON 1.95"
WILSON 2.1NNW 1.31"
...WAYNE COUNTY...
GOLDSBORO 1.5NE 3.35"
GOLDSBORO 4.4E 2.36"
GOLDSBORO 2.12"
GOLDSBORO AIRPORT 1.01"
Finally, The map below is showing the event total from the Raleigh NWS radar. This really puts in perspective just how much rainfall fell.
Beginning during the early morning hours on Tuesday, August 26 rain began to overspread western North Carolina from the southwest from the remnants of Tropical Storm Fay with only light rain and drizzle across central NC. The reason why the heaviest precipitation was focused in the western part of the state was because of an upslope component to the wind. By this I mean the wind was blowing up the higher terrain as the wind was blowing from the SE to NW. This aids in lifting necessary to get precipitation. Combine this process with abundant tropical moisture and the remnant circulation from Fay, you get very very heavy rainfall.
The heavy rains continued to affect the mountains, foothills, western Piedmont and southwest sandhills of NC. Drizzle and light rain continued across the Triangle. The large area of heavy rains finally began to shift NE through the early morning hours on Wednesday, August 27 with some of this rain getting as far east as Johnston county. By 7am, a trailing squall line of heavy rain and thunderstorms was crawling across eastward across the state. The line had rainfall rates of 2-4 inches an hour in spots. It finally reached the Triangle with 1.57 inches of rain falling in one hour at RDU.
Tornadoes then became a major threat as there were several boundaries draped across the state. Whenever a remnant circulation from a tropical storm exists, isolated tornadoes are a possibility. There was also a good amount of wind shear as well as a parameter called helicity which takes into account the wind shear and the possibility of a storm to ingest horizontal spin into its updraft. Wind shear is the change of wind with height. We had southeasterly winds at the surface and southwesterly winds in the middle and upper levels. There was also a increase in the speed of these winds as you go up. Due to the copius amounts of moisture, getting a quick tornado to spin up and touch down was certainly possible. Tornadoes are much more likely to occur when saturation of the air is occurring very low to the surface of the earth. Even if all the parameters necessary for tornadoes exist, if the low level air is dry a tornado may not be as much of a threat.
Below are the damage survey results from the tornadoes that touched down. If you were listening to the news, radio, or are a weather hobbyist you know the Raleigh National Weather Service had issued many warnings in the afternoon.
RANDOLPH COUNTY TORNADO NEAR RANDLEMAN...
TORNADO: EF-0
PEAK WIND: 60 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 500 YARDS
PATH WIDTH: 50 YARDS
TIME/DATE: 1230 PM WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 27, 2008
INJURIES: NONE NONE
FATALITIES: NONE
CHATHAM COUNTY TORNADO NEAR SILK HOPE...
TORNADO: EF-0
PEAK WIND: 75 MPH
PATH LENGTH: ONE AND A HALF MILE
PATH WIDTH: 100 YARDS
TIME/DATE: 415 PM WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 27, 2008
INJURIES: NONE NONE
FATALITIES: NONE
WAYNE AND WILSON COUNTY TORNADO SURVEY...
FIRST TOUCHDOWN AT AYCOCK CHURCH ROAD
TORNADO: EF-0
PEAK WIND: 75 MPH
PATH LENGTH: ONE HALF MILE
PATH WIDTH: 50 YARDS
TIME/DATE: 1258 AM THURSDAY, AUGUST 28, 2008
INJURIES: NONE NONE
FATALITIES: NONE
SECOND TOUCHDOWN AT BEAVER DAM ROAD
TORNADO: EF-0
PEAK WIND: 65 MPH
PATH LENGTH: 150 YARDS
PATH WIDTH: 25-50
TIME/DATE: 102 AM THURSDAY, AUGUST 28, 2008
INJURIES: NONE NONE
FATALITIES: NONE
Now back to the heavy rainfall..
Heavy rain and thunderstorm bands continued through the night across central and eastern NC. Wake county got in on torrential rains and embedded lightning from around 10 through 2am. Here are some totals from around the region reported by the NWS. Note: I had to change the RDU report as I believe they made an error. I also highlighted some notable amounts including one in Greensboro with 10.99" and added Charlotte to the list also as they were not in the report sent out by the Raleigh office. The report totals go from 8am Tuesday the 26th to 8am Thursday the 28th.
LOCATION 48-HR RAINFALL TOTAL
----------------------------------------------------
...ALAMANCE COUNTY...
HAW RIVER 7.23"
GRAHAM 6.58"
BURLINGTON 0.8SE 4.70"
BURLINGTON AIRPORT 4.69"
...CHATHAM COUNTY...
PITTSBORO 6.5W 8.07"
PITTSBORO 5.4NW 7.81"
CHATHAM WATER TREATMENT PLANT 4.83"
SILER CITY 5.5ENE 4.58"
GOLDSTON 4N 3.91"
...CUMBERLAND COUNTY...
FAYETTEVILLE AIRPORT 3.36"
FORT BRAGG 3.26"
FAYETTEVILLE 3.00"
...DAVIDSON COUNTY...
LEXINGTON 4.70"
WINSTON SALEM 7.7S 3.47"
...DURHAM COUNTY...
DURHAM 9.5N 6.32"
DURHAM 7.4 NNW 5.20"
DURHAM 5.15"
DURHAM 1.2NW 3.42"
DURHAM 6.2S 2.96"
...EDGECOMBE COUNTY...
TARBORO 0.50"
...FRANKLIN COUNTY...
YOUNGSVILLE 1.2E 2.62"
YOUNGSVILLE 4.1SE 1.80"
LOUISBURG 8.2ESE 1.53"
LOUISBURG 1.05"
...FORSYTH COUNTY...
LEWISVILLE 4.2N 6.73
RURAL HALL 4.22"
PFAFFTOWN 3.24"
WINSTON-SALEM 0.6S 3.22
SMITH-REYNOLDS AIRPORT 3.15"
...GUILFORD COUNTY...
GREENSBORO 6.5SSE 10.99"
GREENSBORO 1SE 6.74"
PTI AIRPORT 5.79"
BROWNS SUMMIT 3NW 5.29"
GREENSBORO 5.07"
OAK RIDGE 2.3SSW 4.30"
...HALIFAX COUNTY...
ROANOKE RAPIDS 0.73"
HALIFAX CO AIRPORT 0.57"
SCOTLAND NECK 0.26"
...HARNETT COUNTY...
ERWIN-DUNN 3.12"
COATS 0.7W 1.69"
...HOKE COUNTY...
RAEFORD 2.59"
...JOHNSTON COUNTY...
SMITHFIELD 2.8SE 2.09"
CLAYTON 2.1W 2.07"
SMITHFIELD 1.98"
KENLY 6.6NW 1.27"
CLAYTON 5.8S 1.23"
CLAYTON 0.71"
...MECKLENBURG COUNTY...
CHARLOTTE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT 8.54"
...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
JACKSON SPRINGS 2.65"
TILLERY DAM 2.48"
...NASH COUNTY...
NASHVILLE 3.2W 1.19"
ROCKY MOUNT-WILSON AIRPORT 0.63"
...ORANGE COUNTY...
CHAPEL HILL 5.32"
CHAPEL HILL AIRPORT 5.02"
HILLSBOROUGH 7.4NW 4.88"
HILLSBOROUGH 4.9SW 4.02"
MEBANE 7.4SSE 2.99"
...RANDOLPH COUNTY...
RANDLEMAN 7.24"
ASHEBORO 1.2SW 4.91"
ASHEBORO 2.2SSE 4.58"
ARCHDALE 1.3SE 6.72"
...RICHMOND COUNTY...
BLEWETT 1.25"
...SAMPSON COUNTY...
CLINTON 1.16"
...SCOTLAND COUNTY...
LAURINBURG-MAXTON AIRPORT 1.58"
LAURINBURG 0.99"
...STANLY COUNTY...
STANFIELD 4.42"
ALBEMARLE 3.60"
...VANCE COUNTY...
HENDERSON NNE 3.09"
...WAKE COUNTY...
WAKE FOREST 4.6SW 4.45"
WILLOW SPRINGS 4.5SE 3.94"
RALEIGH 10.3N 3.90"
HOLLY SPRINGS 3.76"
APEX 6.1ESE 3.72"
RALEIGH-DURHAM AIRPORT 3.65"
RALEIGH 8.4N 3.43"
HOLLY SPRINGS 1.8ESE 3.35"
HOLLY SPRINGS 2ESE 3.33"
HOLLY SPRINGS 3.6SSE 3.24"
HOLLY SPRINGS 1.1ESE 3.16"
RALEIGH 1.5WNW 2.75"
GARNER 3W 2.65"
CARY 0.4NNW 2.53"
CARY 2.48"
CARY 2.6ESE 2.47"
APEX 2.47"
APEX 3.5W 2.29"
KNIGHTDALE 1.9WSW 2.19"
...WARREN COUNTY...
ARCOLA 1.44"
...WILSON COUNTY...
WILSON 1.95"
WILSON 2.1NNW 1.31"
...WAYNE COUNTY...
GOLDSBORO 1.5NE 3.35"
GOLDSBORO 4.4E 2.36"
GOLDSBORO 2.12"
GOLDSBORO AIRPORT 1.01"
Finally, The map below is showing the event total from the Raleigh NWS radar. This really puts in perspective just how much rainfall fell.
Wednesday, August 27, 2008
DROUGHT BUSTING RAINS
Western NC, SC, and Georgia got much much needed rainfall.. most areas way to much in a short period of time. Today, central NC got in on the action with RDU receiving 2.37 so far and more looks to come shortly. Chapel Hill has seen over 4.5 inches. There were also tornadoes that were spun up in some locations with some strong storms early today. A much more in depth post will be made tomorrow. Check back then for images and some analysis. Also where will Gustav go and how strong?
Sunday, August 24, 2008
Rainfall "Potential" The Next 5 Days
An unsettled weather pattern is setting up for the upcoming week. The upper level ridging that we have seen keep our weather fairly tranquil the last week is beginning to shift away and weaken slightly allowing for a more southwesterly flow of air off the Gulf Of Mexico to take shape. We also will have to watch where the remnant circulation of Tropical Storm Fay moves to this week as it gets caught in this southwesterly flow. Currently the remnants of Fay are over southwestern Alabama and eastern Louisiana. On Monday evening, a cold front from the north will also be entering the state. Combine this front and the increase in moisture from the south there should be a scattering of showers and possible thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. Then this front will settle across the state with a weak high pressure at the surface moving into a warm-season Cold air damming location with northeasterly flow at the surface and warm moist air overriding this "cooler" shallow air mass. The big question that I see that could really affect the amount of rain we see here is how much dry surface air moves in with this high. There is no doubt in my mind that the air above the shallow "cool" dome will be very moist, but if the surface layer is too dry then precipitation may be hard to come by Tuesday. As we head into Wednesday and the end of the week, whatever is left of Fay will move NE into the Ohio Valley and low level moisture should increase again off the Gulf and Atlantic provided for more widespread showers and storms.
Here is a 5-day total Precipitation Forecast from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. It is obvious that the potential exists for significant rainfall this week especially across western NC, SC, and GA where exceptional and extreme droughts exist(The highest drought categories.)
Temperatures this week will average below the normals due to increased cloud cover and the potential for widespread precipitation. I am going to again do a temperature forecast for the week and update the blog with the actual observed temperatures. I will also update on the precipitation but feel it is not necessary to predict amounts, just let you know significant precipitation is possible.
Predicted RDU Temperatures for the next 3 days:
(Normal High is 86)
Monday: 86
Tuesday: 82
Wednesday: 78
Here is a 5-day total Precipitation Forecast from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. It is obvious that the potential exists for significant rainfall this week especially across western NC, SC, and GA where exceptional and extreme droughts exist(The highest drought categories.)
Temperatures this week will average below the normals due to increased cloud cover and the potential for widespread precipitation. I am going to again do a temperature forecast for the week and update the blog with the actual observed temperatures. I will also update on the precipitation but feel it is not necessary to predict amounts, just let you know significant precipitation is possible.
Predicted RDU Temperatures for the next 3 days:
(Normal High is 86)
Monday: 86
Tuesday: 82
Wednesday: 78
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Catching Up
It has been since Sunday when I posted last here and it was to discuss the many possibilities of Fay. Well it is almost Friday as I write this and Fay is still an issue. The models that had Fay stalling and drifting back west across Florida were correct. To put in perspective, Fay has dropped rainfall amounts over 2 feet locally in east central Florida Fay is currently sitting along the coast of Florida and will begin to track westward across Florida into the panhandle. Eventually the remnants will move back into the SE states of Alabama, Georgia, and parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. The question then becomes does her remnant circulation and moisture move NE towards the drought stricken areas of North Carolina, South Carolina, and North Georgia. Stay Tuned..
Closer to home, we have had relatively quiet weather, except a few showers/storms that formed on Wednesday evening dropping close to a half inch of rain at RDU. Temperatures have been normal to slightly above normal as well since last Friday. (Normal high is 87 now). I expect temperatures to be near 63 in the morning with a low overcast developing to a the low level easterly flow. This should burn off quickly though and temperatures should reach the middle 80s tomorrow with a high near 86. A very similar day is in store for Saturday and a little bit warmer on Sunday with a high closer to 88. Friday and Saturday evenings look to be extremely comfortable for this time of year with temperatures hovering near 70 early dropping to the low and middle 60s overnight.
Closer to home, we have had relatively quiet weather, except a few showers/storms that formed on Wednesday evening dropping close to a half inch of rain at RDU. Temperatures have been normal to slightly above normal as well since last Friday. (Normal high is 87 now). I expect temperatures to be near 63 in the morning with a low overcast developing to a the low level easterly flow. This should burn off quickly though and temperatures should reach the middle 80s tomorrow with a high near 86. A very similar day is in store for Saturday and a little bit warmer on Sunday with a high closer to 88. Friday and Saturday evenings look to be extremely comfortable for this time of year with temperatures hovering near 70 early dropping to the low and middle 60s overnight.
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Fay Going Where?
Tropical Storm has been a disorganized tropical cyclone since Friday as it passed through the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Fay is now just south of Cuba and is projected to begin turning west north west and northwest towards Florida. The big question then becomes how strong does Fay get after it re-emerges in the Gulf of Mexico and where does she eventually make U.S. landfall. Computer model forecasts have been extremely unstable where one day they are pushing Fay up into the Appalachians after landfall near Tampa Florida. The next day they are showing a landfall on the panhandle of Florida then slowing down as Fay meanders up into the southeast. Oh and not to mention there are models showing Fay turning NE back into the Atlantic and then making a second landfall on the east coast of the U.S near South Carolina or Georgia.
If the remnants of Fay do in fact move up into GA, SC, and NC, and her remnant circulation is west or south west of NC, then a much needed rainfall event will set up for several days as the flow regime will remain slow due to a a strong surface high setting up off the NE coast of the US. So whatever is left of Fay will meander somewhere over the SE US. Let it be known rain her in NC is by no means guaranteed.
Ill have more on Fay this week as hopefully things become a little clearer but right now expect a lot of chaos is the coming days with regards to what exactly we will feel here in NC.
If the remnants of Fay do in fact move up into GA, SC, and NC, and her remnant circulation is west or south west of NC, then a much needed rainfall event will set up for several days as the flow regime will remain slow due to a a strong surface high setting up off the NE coast of the US. So whatever is left of Fay will meander somewhere over the SE US. Let it be known rain her in NC is by no means guaranteed.
Ill have more on Fay this week as hopefully things become a little clearer but right now expect a lot of chaos is the coming days with regards to what exactly we will feel here in NC.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Record Setting August 13
For a record low maximum temperature. In fact it tied the old record for low maximum for this day. Here is the report from the National Weather Service in Raleigh...
... Record low Max temperature tied at Raleigh-Durham international
Airport today...
As 500 PM EDT... a record low Max temperature of 74 degrees was set
at the Raleigh-Durham international Airport today. This ties the
previous record for August 13th for the coolest high temperature...
last set in 1996.
The normal high temperature for the Raleigh-Durham international
Airport for August 13th is 88 degrees
...
As far as the rainfall, my hunch on more rainfall further northwest was true but amounts were relatively light except in isolated spots that got under some slow moving showers or locations down south such as Fayetteville.
On August 13, 2007, RDU hit a temperature of 98. This was during the stretch of very warm temperatures that we had that included two 104 readings as well as a 105 on August 21. One of the meteorological fields I look at to get a feel for the general atmospheric flow is a 500mb height chart. The lines on the chart show the general wind flow as at this height winds blow parallel to the contours. These contours represent lines of equal 500 mb pressure level height. The barbs are showing the wind direction and speed and the color fill is where the strongest winds are located.
Below is last August 13, 2007 8am 500 mb chart.. Notice how the majority of the lines are to the north across the northern US and southern Canada. This means the majority of the country was under a ridge with very warm temperatures. The ridge is indicated by the large closed contour labeled 5940. This is a large anticyclone meaning high pressure and sinking air.
And here is this morning at 8am. Wow what a difference as the ridge is placed over the SW part of the country and is weaker than last year and there is a deep trough for August standards across the eastern US. This has allowed the cooler air to filter towards our region and because we had little sun today and rain most of the day temperatures were held down. This trough was also responsible for the cool Tuesday morning when we hit 56, and for the development of the low pressure that caused a gloomy, cool fall like day here in NC.
Oh and if your out driving tomorrow morning around sunrise, please be careful of dense fog. There are very light winds, moisture left over from today's rain and dry air on top of the moisture that has allowed for the development of fog. Visibilities have decreased to as little as 3 miles at RDU and 2.5 miles at Chapel Hill. We could also see the mercury drop to 58 or 59 in the morning coming short of the record low for August 14 of 55 set back in 1964.
UPDATE 12:05 AM AUG 14:
RDU does not seem to be sending out its observation for midnight but at Chapel Hill visibilities are down to a half a mile. The fog is getting denser out there and I would not be surprised if Dense Fog Advisories are hoisted for the early morning commute.
... Record low Max temperature tied at Raleigh-Durham international
Airport today...
As 500 PM EDT... a record low Max temperature of 74 degrees was set
at the Raleigh-Durham international Airport today. This ties the
previous record for August 13th for the coolest high temperature...
last set in 1996.
The normal high temperature for the Raleigh-Durham international
Airport for August 13th is 88 degrees
...
As far as the rainfall, my hunch on more rainfall further northwest was true but amounts were relatively light except in isolated spots that got under some slow moving showers or locations down south such as Fayetteville.
On August 13, 2007, RDU hit a temperature of 98. This was during the stretch of very warm temperatures that we had that included two 104 readings as well as a 105 on August 21. One of the meteorological fields I look at to get a feel for the general atmospheric flow is a 500mb height chart. The lines on the chart show the general wind flow as at this height winds blow parallel to the contours. These contours represent lines of equal 500 mb pressure level height. The barbs are showing the wind direction and speed and the color fill is where the strongest winds are located.
Below is last August 13, 2007 8am 500 mb chart.. Notice how the majority of the lines are to the north across the northern US and southern Canada. This means the majority of the country was under a ridge with very warm temperatures. The ridge is indicated by the large closed contour labeled 5940. This is a large anticyclone meaning high pressure and sinking air.
And here is this morning at 8am. Wow what a difference as the ridge is placed over the SW part of the country and is weaker than last year and there is a deep trough for August standards across the eastern US. This has allowed the cooler air to filter towards our region and because we had little sun today and rain most of the day temperatures were held down. This trough was also responsible for the cool Tuesday morning when we hit 56, and for the development of the low pressure that caused a gloomy, cool fall like day here in NC.
Oh and if your out driving tomorrow morning around sunrise, please be careful of dense fog. There are very light winds, moisture left over from today's rain and dry air on top of the moisture that has allowed for the development of fog. Visibilities have decreased to as little as 3 miles at RDU and 2.5 miles at Chapel Hill. We could also see the mercury drop to 58 or 59 in the morning coming short of the record low for August 14 of 55 set back in 1964.
UPDATE 12:05 AM AUG 14:
RDU does not seem to be sending out its observation for midnight but at Chapel Hill visibilities are down to a half a mile. The fog is getting denser out there and I would not be surprised if Dense Fog Advisories are hoisted for the early morning commute.
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