An unsettled weather pattern is setting up for the upcoming week. The upper level ridging that we have seen keep our weather fairly tranquil the last week is beginning to shift away and weaken slightly allowing for a more southwesterly flow of air off the Gulf Of Mexico to take shape. We also will have to watch where the remnant circulation of Tropical Storm Fay moves to this week as it gets caught in this southwesterly flow. Currently the remnants of Fay are over southwestern Alabama and eastern Louisiana. On Monday evening, a cold front from the north will also be entering the state. Combine this front and the increase in moisture from the south there should be a scattering of showers and possible thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. Then this front will settle across the state with a weak high pressure at the surface moving into a warm-season Cold air damming location with northeasterly flow at the surface and warm moist air overriding this "cooler" shallow air mass. The big question that I see that could really affect the amount of rain we see here is how much dry surface air moves in with this high. There is no doubt in my mind that the air above the shallow "cool" dome will be very moist, but if the surface layer is too dry then precipitation may be hard to come by Tuesday. As we head into Wednesday and the end of the week, whatever is left of Fay will move NE into the Ohio Valley and low level moisture should increase again off the Gulf and Atlantic provided for more widespread showers and storms.
Here is a 5-day total Precipitation Forecast from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. It is obvious that the potential exists for significant rainfall this week especially across western NC, SC, and GA where exceptional and extreme droughts exist(The highest drought categories.)
Temperatures this week will average below the normals due to increased cloud cover and the potential for widespread precipitation. I am going to again do a temperature forecast for the week and update the blog with the actual observed temperatures. I will also update on the precipitation but feel it is not necessary to predict amounts, just let you know significant precipitation is possible.
Predicted RDU Temperatures for the next 3 days:
(Normal High is 86)
Monday: 86
Tuesday: 82
Wednesday: 78
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