For the middle of August. Today's high temperature was 86, 2 degrees below the normal high of 88. Add the mild temperature to extremely low dewpoints, you get a glorious fall-like (or spring-like) day. So how about tonight.. with continued clear, dry and relatively calm conditions, I expect to see lows in the middle to upper 50s. Take note that the record low for August 12 is 54 set back in 1954 at RDU. We will probably not reach 54, but we could come very close if the winds go completely calm. This would allow the heat from the day to totally escape into space and the temperature drop towards the dewpoint as long as the sky is clear.
Tomorrow looks to be another glorious day with high temperatures around 87. There will be an increase in high cirrus clouds in the afternoon and evening with the approach of a storm system that should affect some folks in the SE Tuesday night into Wednesday. Right now it appears that the most widespread precipitation will occur along the NC/SC border area but this is not set in stone so stay tuned! I will have an update on this tomorrow evening as new data, current observations, and trends are assessed. Regardless, Wednesday may struggle to get above 80 with cloud cover from this system even if it does not rain.
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Hey Dave,
My general thoughts about the upcoming forecast...this is obviously an unusual storm for this time of year, and this makes me think the models are a bit confused. The GFS suppresses this storm more than the NAM, which in the winter I might buy into, but not this time around. In my mind, the NAM's vertical resolution is going to have a better handle on the CAD scenario that will be taking place by default to some extent. These two reasons have me buying into the NAM precip wise (common sense says the qpf is over done, but the bullseyes are what I'm keying in on). I'm almost positive that CAD will be underdone, which will ramp up the isentropic lift and produce solid precip amounts. I'm thinking there could be areas of 2 inches between gsp, clt and rdu as long as this system moves slow enough. I'm hopeful this will get western NC and SC the rain they badly need.
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